tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-51331830513844476862024-03-19T22:13:30.683-07:00我的投资日记春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.comBlogger117125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-3622210289183760502023-06-01T18:21:00.006-07:002023-06-01T18:21:46.294-07:00摘自施永青先生文章 - 基辛格重政治實利輕道德原則<p> 事实上,就是这么一回事。我没有施先生的对于时事清晰的表达的才华,但是他说出了我想说的话。 以下。</p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">基辛格重政治實利輕道德原則</span></p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美國前國務卿基辛格日前慶祝100歲壽辰。他這麼大的年紀,仍對世事十分關心,有一套自己的看法,並樂於向世人表達。不過,他的那套想法,與美國現時的國策並不一致,所以他被喻為老糊塗,其意見已不值一哂。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">其實,基辛格的意見是西方政治家一貫的戰略思維,師承馬基維利、克勞塞維茨與卑斯麥等的現實主義做法。他認為,在處理政治問題時,首重現實後果,而不是泛泛的道德原則。否則,光有出發點正確,卻換來國家的損失,與人民的苦難,後果嚴重。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">以烏克蘭戰爭為例,很多人只看到俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的國土,違反聯合國的主權原則。因此,俄羅斯這樣做是不對的。各國必須聯合起來,協助烏克蘭對抗俄羅斯,直到把俄羅斯趕出烏克蘭為止。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">這種講法無視世界上的大國都在努力建立自己的勢力範圍的現實,在時機未成熟的時候,企圖改變勢力平衡,足以引起戰爭,帶來社會的破壞,與人民的痛苦。這些後果政治家可能都不太計較;政治家們須計算的是:戰爭將由哪一方勝出?自己的國家是有所得益,還是從此積弱?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">基辛格認為,西方在現階段把勢力範圍擴展到烏克蘭,直逼俄羅斯的西疆是不智的,因為它必然會引起俄羅斯的強烈反應,可是西方對俄羅斯的反應卻準備不足。西方既沒有一戰的決心,就不應去挑起這場戰爭。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">現在戰爭膠著,西方和俄羅斯都在不斷損耗自己的力量,而烏克蘭更是備受破壞,生靈塗炭。一個有宏觀戰略思考的政治家是不應把世界引進一個這樣的困局的。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">基辛格基於現實的看法,主張烏克蘭以土地換取和平,把克里米亞與頓巴斯割讓給俄羅斯,以換取俄羅斯撤兵,並與烏克蘭簽訂永久和約。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">有評論認為,基辛格的意見是非不分,毫無原則。但現實是人類在歷史上的所作所為從來都不講原則,而是成者為王,敗者為寇。基辛格想迴避的,只是對西方不利的政局演變。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">在我看來,西方自己既不肯落水,卻慫恿烏克蘭去挑戰強鄰,才是不道德行為。澤連斯基要計算的,是引導局勢朝哪個方向發展才對烏克蘭有利,而不是只懂得講道德原則。講道德原則,小學雞的水平也一目了然,政治領袖得有更宏觀的戰略部署。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">香港人其實在這方面受過不少教訓,當年香港的民主派,哪個不自以為佔領了道德高地,卻完全忽略了政治實力上的對比。結果為了追求虛無的政治理念,把香港人本已既得在手的、對香港人最為有利的一國兩制首個版本也斷送了。這批反對派,自己一鋪清袋也就算了,難為是大部分香港人都得為此而付出代價!往後,香港人必須學會從現實的角度去思考政治問題,而非單講道德原則。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">基辛格認為西方今天的不幸,是缺乏有宏觀現實視野的戰略思想家。</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-25122904802266702022023-02-16T17:16:00.002-08:002023-02-16T17:16:45.327-08:00摘录的文章 - 香港空前的大暴亂令人眼界大開<p> 以下的文章我不能同意更多,我只能说反对一方的好听的称教育也好,不好听的称洗脑也好,都是比较成功的。爱国爱港不能流于一个空泛的词语,因为明显被有心人加盐加醋就已经溃不成军。其实那样一个空前的大爆乱不仅仅是一个深刻的警钟,不好好事后分析找出症结而治疗之,迟早还会有下一次。 </p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: 700; text-align: center;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: 700; text-align: center;">香港空前的大暴亂令人眼界大開</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin-block: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; min-height: 1em; text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">(</span><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">原文發表於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">2019</span><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">9</span><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">6</span><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">日</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin-block: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; min-height: 1em;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 18pt; margin-block: 0px; margin: 12pt 0cm; min-height: 1em;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;">網上群組的朋友轉來一篇時事評論,對平日不關心政治,近三個月亦不怎樣善於觀察及分析香港時事的朋友,這篇短文當令他們眼界大開:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;">「香港事變讓人見識了:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">1</span></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 11.5pt;">、粗口之埠:不分男女,不講粗口說不出話來,尤其是香港黃衛兵,這次說粗口的次數,將世界許多城市人一生的說粗口的名額都用去了。例如我剛在親暴徒的《爆笑公社》評論了一對男女市民對警察的態度,一位有兩個小孩的年青媽媽女士這樣回覆我:“你條廢老關你咩事?食屎啦你!”,這就是年青一代香港人的素養。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"> 2</span></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 11.5pt;">、人類從來未有過在校大學生,這麼白痴、愚味、衝動、野蠻、暴戾、狡詐、缺德、目無法紀、反政府、辱罵警察、欺凌他人。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">3</span></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 11.5pt;">、從來未見過一個現代化城市的媒體,幾乎一面倒地偏袒暴徒,千方百計污衊堪稱世界最優秀的警隊(之一)。香港的媒體、記者操守蕩然,職責報廢。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"> 4</span></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 11.5pt;">、香港的執業律師 大律師 甚至乎立法的議員區議員公然在現場,質詢阻礙警方執法,在暴徒施暴後,協助逃避法律責任。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"> 5</span></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 11.5pt;">、一個政府資助的政府媒體<span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">(</span>港台<span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">)</span>、記協、教協成了叛亂分子反政府的始作俑者。記協再三阻礙警方執法、有立場地報導新聞、直接間接協助暴徒、還说没新聞自由<span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">! </span>黃衛兵暴徒是教協校長教授老師通過通識課長期洗腦的產物。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">6</span></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 11.5pt;">、世界上從未有一個地區的大學學生會全部成為反攻府組織暴力煽動者。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">7</span></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 11.5pt;">、世界上從未有一個地區擁有那麼多合法的反政府組織如眾志、民陣、人民力量、社民連、職工盟…、教協、記協、醫護、社工、大律師… 甚至乎大部分黄絲法官、少部分公務員……</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"> 8</span></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 11.5pt;">、世界上從未有一個地區一年批准遊行集會過萬宗,(過去差不多三個月,傷人毀物、破壞嚴重的暴力犯罪活動無日無之,但數以十萬計的暴力犯罪分子,警察祗驅趕而不拘捕,讓他們為所欲為),卻仍說(它)沒有民主自由!</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;">9</span></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 11.5pt;">、世界上從未有一個多年最自由經濟體排名最高地區的大量年青學生,只是因為一個假設性失去自由的將來而不擇手段,以摧毁那地區經濟為目的而去搞破壞。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;">上面全都是一些教人心酸的事實!」</span></p>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-21462997240290522972022-10-17T18:27:00.000-07:002022-10-17T18:27:00.583-07:00摘录施先生文章 - 為了遏制中國 美國本性畢露<p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">為了遏制中國 美國本性畢露</span></p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">為了建立全球霸主的地位,美國不但懂得展現他的硬實力,還善於在全球鼓吹一套普世信念,以讓世人心悅誠服受到美國的領導,相信把世界交由美國來主導,才符合天道,才會得到上天的歡心。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">其實,有一點歷史知識的人都十分清楚,美國現在宣揚的一套,與歷史上他的所作所為根本不一致。美國為了上位時做的是一套,到他上位後鼓吹的完全是另一套。通常,人的行動更能反映一個人的價值觀;口裏所說的可能都是騙人的。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">今天的美國人,大部分是十七世紀之後,才由歐洲遷到美洲生活的。他們是怎樣對待原居在那裏的印第安人呢?他們用武力霸佔了印第安人的家園,把印第安人驅趕到荒蕪不毛的地方自生自滅,可有想到印第安人也是人類的一分子,是應該享有基本人權的呢!</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">到美國要發展農業時,他們就把非洲的黑人綁架到美國做奴隸。到美國要修建鐵路時,他們就立法讓鐵路公司可以任意奴役華人勞工,用完即棄。美國人珍惜的,就是任意剝削別人,欺淩他人的自由。至於別人的人權,就只能先看看優勝劣敗的結果。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美國很清楚,國際政治講實力地位,所以美國在全球二百多個地方都有軍事基地,誰不服從美國的旨意,誰就休想再在國際舞台上立足。在美國的心目中,弱國的主權是不用尊重的。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">由此可見,美國口頭上的所謂普世價值,都只是用來幹預外國內政的藉口,他自己是不用遵守的。這次為了遏抑中國的崛起,美國可謂是本性畢露,甚麼卑汙的手段都可以毫無內疚地運用。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美國不是主張自由市場,公平競爭嗎?為甚麼對中國的出口要徵收這麼高的關稅呢?為甚麼中國的5G產品又先進,又廉宜,美國卻不許盟友使用呢?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美國不是主張學術自由嗎?為甚麼不容許美國的大學招收中國的學生呢?為甚麼要限制美國的科技人才去中國的機構任職呢?他們不是應該有選擇工作的自由嗎?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美國不是主張司法獨立嗎?為甚麼孟晚舟一案中,可以出現這麼多的政治考慮呢?如果美國真是相信司法獨立,美國又怎可以透過長臂管理去幹預別國的司法獨立呢?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美國不是主張傳媒自由嗎?為甚麼又限制中國的傳媒在美國運作呢?為甚麼連中國的民營社交媒體TikTok亦想加以封殺呢?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美國不是主張政經分離嗎?還批評中國以經濟做武器企圖達到政治目標;但美國不是一再企圖透過限制中國獲得芯片的供應,而逼使中國在政治上向美國屈服嗎?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">由此可見,美國為了維護全球霸主的地位,是不惜放棄曾經奉為圭臬的信念,也要以最有效的手段,把中國的威脅壓下去。</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-5307159223337452792022-10-13T18:34:00.006-07:002022-10-13T18:34:47.938-07:00真理可否靠事實檢驗 - 摘录雷先生文章<p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">真理可否靠事實檢驗? </span></p><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">很多人都應有此經驗,在他們所遇過的人當中,或是在網上,有些人雖然口頭上認同「事實勝於雄辯」,但實際上,在無可質疑的證據面前,大多數人恐怕不是放棄一些被推翻掉的錯誤成見,而是繼續堅持,甚至頗為憤怒。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">原來此現象絕非港人獨有,可能還是人性的</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">一部分。近年來,國際社會科學界對此作了數以千計的實驗,大都推翻了這假說︰「當你的信念受到事實挑戰時,你會改變你的看法,並把新的資訊融入你的想法中。」但卻支持這假說︰「當你最深的信念與證據相矛盾時,你原本的信念會更強烈。」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">這可是小事大事都不妙。我有位小學與中學同學麥錦雄,很熱心搞舊同學的聯誼活動,他從實踐中得到一句很值得深思的名言︰「真理絕非愈辯愈明。」為何對人性的認知有此悲觀的看法?蓋因他發現,就算一方能提出大量事實作根據,持相反理念的另一方也絕不會接受。既然如此,還是友誼萬歲,不爭論尖銳問題為上。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">多數人不會改正錯誤信念</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">上述只是有普遍性的小事,我們這一輩人,大都懂得在社交場合中避談政治不談宗教。但信念並不一定有事實作基礎,對政治制度的成敗卻大有影響。美國開國元勳之一的傑弗遜在1789年說過︰「當人民都掌握充分資訊時,他們當有資格建立自己的政府。」換言之,當人民並非無知時,西方的民主制度可行。近年的大量研究卻指明,在事實面前,很多人,甚至是大多數人,都不見得會改變自己錯誤的信念,既然如此,怎可保證選出來的總統不是個壞蛋?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">更有甚者,上面提到的大量研究中,發現人民對某些信念的強烈執著,並非源自他們對相關問題有深入認識。這樣便慘情了,政治的活躍參與者,雖事事自以為站在道德高地,但原來大有可能是無知之輩。此等情節,3年前港人早已領教過。有些人信口雌黃,繪影繪聲,聲淚俱下,連大學校長也甘心受騙,卻原來全無事實依據。香港的輿論也並非全無反擊,但這又墮入另一種現象︰「適得其反效應」(Backfire Effect),提出事實者會使到對方十分不舒服,因為這會造成他們認知失調,其自我保護機制會促使這些人作出與事實無關的人身攻擊,攻擊愈厲害愈反映攻擊者的不安。也有研究者用抗生素作比喻,用藥力不足的抗生素,不但治不了病,還會產生抗藥性,對病情不利,用事實去推翻錯誤的信念,起到的效果只是讓某些人以後更不願意認識事實,繼續把頭埋在沙中。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">千萬不要以為上述論斷只是憑空臆測。在生活中或國際大環境中,在在可見事實改變不了信念的例子。篇幅所限,只舉幾例。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">近20年前,美國國務卿用一小瓶粉末作「證據」,說伊拉克有大殺傷力武器,必須揮軍攻入伊拉克摧毀這些武器。事後美國完全找不到這些武器,連痕跡也沒有,但不要以為支持侵略的人便甘心接受道德審判,承認自己的錯誤,這些人今天還在死撐,更強烈相信伊拉克確曾有這些武器。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">反疫苗者拒接納科學證據</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">新冠肆虐,但不肯打針的大有人在,以致香港近3成80歲以上的長者一針也未打,處於險境。其實反疫苗並非香港獨有,外國的研究顯示,她們的反疫苗者(並非只反新冠疫苗,一切俱反)對科學證據毫不理會,證據愈多,他們只會更認為這是藥物公司在背後指揮。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">中國近43年實質GDP上升了43倍,但一向以來,每年都有人說中國經濟在當年便要崩潰。此等「預言」以在美國的反華律師章家敦為代表,奇便奇在他的「預言」次次都被事實推翻後,他還敢再作預測,希望終有一次是對的,更奇的是,還有人相信,足見事實有時並非止謠良藥。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">南京大屠殺的人證物證多不勝數,但日本否認有此罪行發生過的,大有人在。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">3年前831事件今天還有人相信,今年的8月31日,還有人到太子港鐵站拜祭「亡靈」。港鐵錄影中找不到證據,「死者」眾多,但竟沒有家屬或朋友苦主,聽說也有人「復陽」了,但今天對831深信不疑的人不少,有無此事實不重要,重要的是,若此事沒有發生過,那麼當日的激情怒氣,豈不顯得可笑?這如何可接受?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">世上的末日邪教不少,曾有邪教預言1954年12月21日為世界末日。據研究者發現,預言落空後,這批信徒更堅持信念。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">物理學一代宗師普朗克(Max Planck)曾說︰「科學真理的勝利並非靠說服反對者,使他們看到真理之光,而是靠反對者都死乾死淨。」我常說,大學教育只要能使學生習慣用邏輯推論及用科學方法搜集證據,那麼就算學生其他的學不到,大學教育也算成功。看來這不容易。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" />春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-1054775374744681912022-09-27T18:28:00.003-07:002022-09-27T18:28:55.501-07:00摘录石镜泉先生文章- 基辛格看世界<p> 基辛格以百年智慧道出问题,实在是了解国与国外交关系的精髓,掌握平衡确实是艺术。</p><p><br /></p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 俄烏陷戰,台海風雲亂,找位老人家--基辛格出來談談世局,以下是他最近</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">一次訪談的節錄。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 基辛格(Henry Kissinger, 1923 -)近日揚言,美國缺乏一位偉</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">人來領導國家。何以見得?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">。以其99歲高齡,基辛格在政壇早已功成身退,但他近日卻高調復</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">出,並發表多篇文章,批評現任總統拜登,直指他不合格。自基辛格退休之後,美國幾乎每一屆</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">政府及白宮都對他推崇備至,不時請他出謀獻策,擔任諮詢、顧問的角色,包括小布殊、奧巴馬</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">、特朗普政府都曾這樣做,只有拜登沒有。基、拜二人相識已幾十年,而基辛格卻直指拜登沒有</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">領袖特質,只適合做處理一國家一般行政事務的官員。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 基辛格認為,國與國之間的外交精髓是一種平衡的藝術,而不是兩國之間的較量。過往中美</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">長期有一種默契:不管遇上甚麼問題,都不應在對台問題上較勁,美國過去從不會高調支持台獨</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">。兩國外交,若一個國家不斷觸及另一個國家的底線是極愚蠢的行為,也不符合國際關係的規矩</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">。中美經濟合作非常緊密,而且日、韓已是美國在亞太區的跳板,美國根本不需要台灣。若美國</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">以發展經濟的代價,爭奪一個沒有甚麼用處的台灣,美國總統和一眾白宮官員是否錯判了形勢?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美國在台問題上強硬,勢必令中美關係的裂縫愈來愈大。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 美國既不會出兵支持台獨,卻一再試探中國的底綫,這對美國聲譽造成極大的傷害,但拜登</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">卻執意這樣做,令人費解。基辛格是國際關係的專家,外交上善於平衡的藝術,他自稱「最擅長</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">的是抓著每個國家的核心利益,只要讓每一個國家都開心,那麼世界自然就會和平了。」然而,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">拜登現在卻只損害其他國家的利益,並沒有考慮損害了這些國家利益之後,美國可從中得到甚麼</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">。基辛格批評拜登短視,在國際競爭中,短視就等於自掘墳墓。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 中國崛興,勢不可擋,而拜登政府常在台灣問題上不斷挑釁,基辛格又怎樣評估現時兩岸形</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">勢?以下是他有次接受訪問時的答案。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 問:中、台問題,前景如何?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 基:對中國來說,台灣是中國不可分割的一部分。當初美國與北京建交時,一方面我們要接</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">受「一個中國」的概念;另一方面,中國要接受政治演變的長期性。毛澤東就曾說過,台灣問題</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">可以拖100年。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 問:那麼,我們可如何處理現在這段時期</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 基:美中在台灣問題上不斷對抗,將會引起反效果。美國愈想確認台灣是「第二個中國」,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">中國就愈覺得必須回應,針對台灣的軍力就會不斷增加,形勢愈發緊張。雙方都不應要求對方明</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">確放棄其基本原則,美國已明確表示,中國武力攻台意味著美國會有重大反應,而最近美國公開</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">表態,只會造成形勢更緊張。因此,爭拗要降溫,但要看中國有沒有行動:一旦出現軍事行動,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美方才需要做決定。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 若中、美國內民情都公然對台灣問題有著極大興趣,便只會導致形勢進一步惡化,而西方國</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">家卻沒有就如何應對中國構成的長期挑戰作好準備。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 問:我們應如何應對?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 基:我們必須研究出一個應對中國的概念(concept),並能長時間堅持,而不應隨</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">著美國政府更替而變化。我認為,這是對西方的一個歷史性考驗。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">*讓烏克蘭重新依附俄羅斯*</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 2016年上台的特朗普不同意基辛格的外交政策及其思維,特朗普不懂得歷史及國際關係</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">,也對北約有所疑慮。他覺得,外交就是達成交易(deal making)。基辛格指特朗</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">普覺得,與普京維持良好關係,美俄便可萬事大吉。基辛格說,個人關係固然重要,但不是決定</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">性的因素。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">在基辛格眼中,普京是個機智、「受到俄羅斯歷史某種神話般的信念所驅使,卻不獲其他國家認</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">同其觀點」的領袖。基辛格指俄羅斯領土橫跨歐亞許多個時區,周邊很多敵對政權,所以俄有其</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">獨特的生存模式,以及民族意識和信念。此外,蘇聯解體,也令人俄羅斯民眾對所喪失的一切感</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">到悲憤。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 基辛格認為,普京所堅持的並非像希特拉般的征服主義,而是對俄羅斯的一種堅定的信念。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">他舉例指,在普京心裏,烏克蘭並不僅是前蘇聯一個加盟共和國,而是從俄羅斯分裂出去的一部</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">分國土。雖然俄烏戰爭製造了以澤連斯基為代表的烏克蘭民族意識,但普京發動戰爭,是希望讓</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">烏克蘭重新依附俄羅斯,故必須戰勝才可。他估計,普京在俄羅斯的地位岌岌可危,或不能長久</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">維持下去。「絕大部分我認識的歐洲領導人都會同意我的看法:普京將得不到任何好處。如果俄</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">征烏失敗,歐洲保持團結,烏克蘭仍是個獨立主權國家;若北歐國家也加入北約,烏克蘭應否加</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">入北約的問題便會迎刃而解。」基辛格說。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 若俄烏戰爭以目前兩國的軍事分界結束,即俄羅斯控制頓巴斯大部分地區及黑海沿岸地區,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">便會被認為是俄戰勝。基辛格指若新的國界線是以俄軍佔領哪裏為界,那將非常不幸,他呼籲西</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">方必須驅逐俄軍至俄烏戰事爆發前的邊界之外,並建議歐盟和北約現在就與俄展開對話,從而建</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">立穩定的系統。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 基辛格以其百年智慧,預視了危險:一個以聯盟和諒解為基礎的世界,正被一個以自我利益</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">為原則的世界所取代,其潛在後果前所未有地具有威脅性。國際衝突已導致各國沒有餘力去進行</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">其他發展,而有些領導人則完全失去掌控形勢的能力。基辛格呼籲,各國須建立互信基礎,各方</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">應開展對話,從而創造新思維,以取代一個主戰或主和的簡單模式,應對今時的複雜的國際局勢</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 筆者按:拜登從政N年,他一直在圍繞外交事務上工作,故他不可能不知美國外交事務的方</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">向和方針。外交,可以如基辛格所言,以尋求和平來做工作核心,但外交亦可以如日本軍國主義</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">者所倡,以將諸國都併入「大東亞共榮圈」為宗旨,而拜登就是想構建「大美國共榮圈」。不過</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">大家都知昔日日本軍國主義者,和今日拜登,並不在意「共榮」,只在意「獨榮」,基辛格的王</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">道與拜登的霸道是水火不容的。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">*美國傳奇外交家基辛格*</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 1923年出生於德國的基辛格是美籍猶太裔外交官,1938年移居美國,曾參與二戰,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">因精通德語,曾任德語繙譯及軍事參謀;戰後,他進入哈佛大學讀政治,並於1953年獲博士</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">學位。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">這位美國傳奇外交家曾經歷二戰、美蘇冷戰的年代,更為美國突破了當時的外交困局,乃70年</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">代美中建交的重要推手,以及緩和蘇聯,乃至阿拉伯國家與以色列和解的功臣。1973年,他</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">任美國總統國家安全事務助理時,妥善解決了越戰善後的問題,並因此獲頒諾貝爾和平獎。他曾</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">任尼克遜及福特政府的國務卿,也是當年美國外交及國策的真正制定者。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 基辛格歷任美國數屆總統的首席顧問及國務卿,被譽為是「中國通」、「南美通」的智囊,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">在國際政壇備受尊崇</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-8893178490585218172022-09-21T17:50:00.004-07:002022-09-21T17:50:46.672-07:00摘录施永青先生的文章 - 為何有部分港人對英女王別有感情? <p> 这篇文章我觉得还是比较中肯的说出了一些现象。</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">為何有部分港人對英女王別有感情?</span></p><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEjizeygtW5CyhTJ9IC5mtt6KUcAwgXtbCwPFKPD-hBI0H-02PXts1w92s2IdWMOfaqjNDgP0MFQW6LTtTTdzljIN_GqOUji1cBdrhWi6ETTWbIcXm0VKmn2cpAwsqxQ4BXU4lpQweg3CJItqF-J76S1UKPyFFOOIHJplu1hauY4zVkt_MEUVPSXF6QJ2ZKzwWKKIe_eQtdzGEjzFAYBFupa331z_Yvgd7eTHWxhEbC56WvmTOECQhRHOmSUzU095pufnTBQlxGDATlFJ10AQCNm-KFSecOgYK79T8sIh5wdvFFS36hgzow0A4U3E8Q9Px2-v0l_0ZD0IbP8ivzzQlyjamt_URbf-2paxZyj7_OoHXfLddYk9NCvllFpqO10tgbXB25wnCl8jvSzd2ag5QUgOOgSq2I5tR0idD2JcPHAERYZLlinS0-uDCpa8Qw=s0-d" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1) 1px 1px 5px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px; max-width: 100%; padding: 5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><img src="https://d5ttlem47o98b.cloudfront.net/s3fs-public/styles/article_image/public/2022-09/04-03_12.jpg?itok=rueg07py" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1) 1px 1px 5px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px; max-width: 100%; padding: 5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">英女王逝世,日前在西敏寺舉行國葬。中國國家副主席與三名中方官員亦有出席悼念儀式。這是外交禮儀,因為英女王代表的不是現任政府,而是代表整個英國的國家與人民。英國的現任政府對中國雖然不甚友好,但中國尚未與整個英國與英國人民為敵。再者,英女王生前曾在白金漢官接待過到訪的中國領導人,曾為中英之間的友好合作作過貢獻。中國人向來都是念舊情與重禮儀的。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">不過,內地的一些網民,對香港有部分人表達對英女王的懷念卻不予認同,覺得很難接受這種戀殖情意結。香港粵劇名伶羅家英就因為在網上發表了一些悼念英女王的說話,而遭內地網民圍攻,最後被迫公開道歉,承認自己某些說法並不恰當,未經深思熟慮。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">在內地人心目中,英國是率先侵犯我國的西方國家,鴉片戰爭是國恥的起點。在英國的帶頭下,西方國家瓜分了中國的領土,掠奪中國的資源,並在中國的領土上侮辱及欺負中國人,直是恨意難消。但羅家英先生竟無視這些歷史事實,說香港在英女王的庇護下,成了人間福地。內地人沒法明白,為何英國人佔據了中國領土,強迫在香港的中國人接受外族的強權統治,有些香港人竟甘之如飴,還崇洋媚外,不以為恥。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">部分香港人的這種情懷,不但內地人無法理解,世上大部分曾經接受過英國殖民統治的地區的人民都無法理解。新加坡亦曾是英國的殖民地,其開國總理李光耀更曾在英國受教育,但他對英國毫無好感。記得有次他訪問香港,在港大與彭定康同台演講,他毫不留情地數臭英國在其殖民地的劣行,令彭定康好不尷尬。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">此外,印度聖雄甘地與南非國父曼德拉,都對英國的殖民統治深惡痛絕。他倆都是國際公認對人類作出了貢獻的政治家,為何他們對殖民地政府的感受與部分香港人有這麼大的差異呢?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">我認為唯一的差別,是英國人後期管治香港的手法已完全與管治英國其他殖民地的方法不一樣。其他英國的殖民地人民,長期受到的都是老式的粗暴醜陋的殖民地統治,對殖民地政府難有好感。但自從新中國成立後,英國人不睇僧面,也要睇佛面,弗敢再沿用舊式的殖民地手法來對付港人。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">英國人明白,中國只是尚未收回香港,不是沒有收回香港的能力。如果英國處理不當,中國是可能會提前收回香港的。英國不想這樣的事情發生,才在香港實施懷柔改良政策,給予香港人一定的自主空間。所以,香港人在香港生活的時候,所得到的體驗,與印度人與南非人在當地的體驗並不一樣。如果沒有新中國的出現,英國人很可能還是沿用對付印度與南非的手法來管治香港,那香港人的感受可能與現在很不一樣,戀殖情緒就很難有滋生條件。</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-76173467499358342212022-09-15T19:12:00.002-07:002022-09-15T19:12:22.443-07:00摘录雷鼎鸣先生文章 - 英女王與殖民主義<p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">英女王與殖民主義 </span></p><img src="https://resource01-proxy.ulifestyle.com.hk/res/v3/image/content/3350000/3354237/20220916JEB001__20220916_L.jpg" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1) 1px 1px 5px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px; max-width: 100%; padding: 5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span class="innity-in-post" id="innity-in-post-1663293791141" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></span><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">英女王逝世,香港的戀殖人士如喪考妣,心情複雜。我對這位女王並無惡感,亦不覺其討厭,畢竟她是大英王朝及其殖民地的門面,有如掛在牆上的月曆女郎,外觀總會使人順眼。我對以侵略別國為志向的帝國主義殖民主義一向反感,偏偏英國卻是歷史上最大規模的帝國主義</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">的源頭,當今整個世界190多個國家中,只有22個未曾被英國侵略過,在我至今的整個人生中,女王既然是這個王朝的象徵,我實在不可能對她有任何緬懷之念。不過,她在位期間,英國國力迅速衰落,英國雖間有惡劣行徑,例如無根無據便侵略伊拉克,導致生靈塗炭,但英國尚無實力當上首惡,英女王更無權力,所以若把她等同有如日皇裕仁般的戰犯,便不公平。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">分析任何國家或歷史人物,我們應一分為二,看清其輝煌與衰敗、善良與邪惡、美麗與醜陋,否則便易偏頗。伊利沙伯二世繼位之時,英國早已失去世界一哥的地位。女王繼位前21歲時的公開演說便表明會以服務英聯邦為其職志,但英聯邦本身正是殖民地歷史的餘暉,由此可知,她對已逝去的大英帝國的眷戀,剪不斷理還亂。但歷史的潮流終不是她阻擋得了,看看數據便知。據IMF對2022年GDP(以購買力平價計)的估算,中國世界第1,美國第2,印度第3,日本第4,德國第5,俄國第6,印尼第7,英國第8,她竟被昔日的殖民地印度拋開,連印尼也追不及。就算用人均GDP(也是用購買力平價計),英國只排26,反觀香港,排名夾於排第9與第10的國家之間,又是大幅拋離英國。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">印度受英殖民傷害最深</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">殖民地的作用本便是用來吸納別人的資源為己所用,二次大戰後殖民地紛紛獨立,英國失去殖民地的供奉,自然好景不常。若論明白殖民主義帝國主義之害,中國人民與港人中懂得歷史的一群,自然深有體會。英國人為了要得到中國的絲綢、茶葉、瓷器,但又沒有白銀付帳,竟甘作毒販,把在她殖民地印度種植的鴉片強行賣給中國,中國不肯買,英國便打了兩次鴉片戰爭,第一次搶走了香港,第二次後來還火燒圓明園,燒了三天三夜,珍寶不是被掠走(大英博物館儼然是賊贓館,訴說著帝國主義的猙獰)便是被毀掉。正直的人對此等惡行焉能無動於衷?雖從未聽過英女王對殖民地有所反省,但她尚算家山有福,家中出了個知道為英殖民行徑感到愧疚的孫兒哈利與孫媳婦梅根,保存了王室的一脈正氣。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">若論受害最深的應該是印度。18世紀中葉以前,印度仍有自己的皇帝,不算英國的殖民地。據經濟史大師麥迪遜(Angus Maddison)的估算,1700年時印度GDP是世界GDP的27%,但到了1947年獨立時卻只是3%。此種停滯並非無因,印度學者Tharoor著有一書《不光榮的帝國︰英國對印度幹了些甚麼》,詳列出種種苛捐重稅,農業稅是當時世界最高的稅率,稅收除了流回英國外,主要用來支付英國的海外軍費。一些貿易數據顯示,每年有8%的GDP被轉移到英國本土去。在19世紀末,印度是英國收入最大的來源。經濟以外,英國常會徵召印度壯丁到處打仗,侵略其他國家。在工業上,英國卻刻意打壓印度的紡織業及造船航運業。Tharoor寫此書的目的是要打開向英國索償之路,應賠償多少?以今天的物價算,起碼是英國一年的GDP,但英國肯定不會賠。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">那麼,殖民時期留下來的東西,有無值得珍惜的部分?大約20年前麻省理工幾位經濟學家研究過歷史上幾百個殖民地歷史後,發現殖民者有兩策略︰假如殖民地不宜久居,死亡率高,殖民者便會以掠奪資源為目的,不會建立長治久安的制度。但若地理優越,殖民者要長期利用,便會引進一些當時尚算是現代化的管理制度,香港被英國人視為轉口港,應屬後者。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">港公僕制度僵化須改革</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">客觀而言,英國人引入的法制,在英佔時期常有偏袒英國人及權貴,但尚有某程度的公正性;自由市場及資金自由流動都是香港要保留的寶貴遺產;百多年來沒有民主,在離開前幾年才引入某些民主選舉,匆匆忙忙,恐怕是別有用心。公務員制度有其優點,但公務員重程序不重實效的制度已不合時宜,需要改革。我觀察香港多年後得到的結論是,在制度上,英國人留下的,並非如有些人所吹的功效神奇,但應保留的還是很多。世界在進步,英國自己也在面對著巨大的危機,英國制度用得太多,並非妙事。制度改革應是不斷進行的。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">最值得珍惜的,倒應是科技及文化上的成果。英國王朝出過牛頓及麥士維,前者的牛頓力學,後者的麥士維方程,都是與相對論同一檔次的科學基礎,這是英國對人類的巨大貢獻。英國不大可能賠償過去對佔領地的傷害,我們從其科技文明中吸收一些積極因素,倒可稍彌補損失。</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-20399923208235837092022-08-24T22:53:00.002-07:002022-08-24T22:53:13.902-07:00 施永青先生文章 - 個人主義影響西方的經濟發展<p> 在我看来,施先生分析的很恰当,而香港人我觉得相对来说,个人主义比较明显,也就是比较倾向西方思想;其实也不奇怪,因为毕竟作为殖民管理了相当长的一段时间。</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">個人主義影響西方的經濟發展</span></p><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEjc3OJomemMeNVUoiu6ph_XYVLwgCkmsaoYu0t6yXad64B7_43gVyahnY5IGk8Le0d7KnYNP4FV1twHNuEbyCKxWLy3LSsoSG2LTDk4ZFtTnERRZEJb4_n73BHw8uDoB0kP6tpQIpmm9kii5b9MSjb6jjP08_JLXGSGAY8WIHAi6tx-4saE8BBL8-5VUW3XSTqQdcTyn3znA4i9HqYZN4Sk2Ltmyyl6vHhXfNfwymfWzvZo2c3bYwGJ3H9Ke_eG1VW3JTtGbdf1zuARCh4lXpYfUC002F4NrwWaOySysl7ZH2ClKRc_qQKYPv-X_HBpCGjGixnYEjw1Ps3wNOQxIQegEnooYl6nye5lJWKWWmFW0bxlkVbye3vof9dz6LLlAnd1gOOqzGOTsVel5_3ZIqemiO6541gLLVdXuDArzlSKFey-MTx87g=s0-d" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1) 1px 1px 5px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px; max-width: 100%; padding: 5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><img src="https://d5ttlem47o98b.cloudfront.net/s3fs-public/styles/article_image/public/2022-08/02-04_5.jpg?itok=7hUMgQdt" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1) 1px 1px 5px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px; max-width: 100%; padding: 5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">英國新首相的熱門人選、現任外相卓慧思,有一段錄音近日在傳媒上流傳。錄音內容批評英國工人的工作態度,認為這是造成英國生產力不足的主要原因。她把英國的勞工描述為世上最懶散的族群之一。她還說,如果你去中國看看,情況完全不一樣。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">其實相對拉丁民族,英國的盎格魯‧撒克遜民族在西方人之中,已算是相對勤勞及工作專注力較高的民族;只是在紀律方面比不上德國的日耳曼人。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">談民族性的差異,常被視作種族歧視。現實是不同的民族在不同的地域成長,不同的地域有不同的氣候與客觀環境,在成長過程中有不同的遭遇與經驗教訓,形成不同的信仰與文化價值觀。所以,不同的民族有不同民族性是很自然的事。只要我們在了解一個民族的共同性時,不排除其中的個體可以有特殊性便沒有問題了。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">受儒家文明影響較深的東方黃種人(蒙古人種),是世上最勤勞,最有能力吃苦,最能長時間專注於工作,又願意遵守紀律的民族。他們為世界提供生產力最強的產業工人。中國人、日本人、韓國人與越南人,能夠在全球製造業上扮演舉足輕重的角色,與他們的民族性有一定的關係。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">儒家文明與西方文明的主要差異,是前者重視集體,後者重視個人。儒家文明雖重視個人的「修身」,但「修身」的目的卻是「齊家、治國、平天下」。而「修身」的主要內容就是「克己」與「慎獨」。「克己」的目的是為了「奉公」,「慎獨」就是在沒有人看到的情況下也要遵守為群體生存而制定出來的禮法。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">而西方的個人主義,則追求自我實現(Self-actualization)。意思是要令個人存在的意義得到充分發揮。而個人存在的意義則是由個人自己賦予的。所以,西方人可沉迷吸毒、酗酒、美色、賭博等,只要自己樂在其中,就可以把道德倫理放在一邊不管。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">西方人“Work hard, play hard”,他們要求work與play起碼要對等;實際上是play愈多愈好,work就愈少愈好。相反,在儒家文明下,人需要「先天下之憂而憂」,為家庭、為國家work多多都唔夠,play一陣都有犯罪感。我年輕時喜歡養魚、種花,我父親警告我,這樣會玩物喪志。在他心中,這樣的事情,只宜退休後才做。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">亞洲金融風暴後,韓國的經濟受到重創,韓國人把家裡的金器也拿出來變賣,籌錢給國家共渡難關。我曾在首爾地鐵站遇過賣燒餅的大學生,他們不是為了幫補家用,而是響應學生會號召,為國家籌募資金。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">英國近期通脹惡化,鐵路工人罷工,碼頭工人罷工,大學教授罷工,連刑事律師也罷工。他們為自己的利益發聲,站在個人主義的立場上沒有甚麼不對;但在國家處境困難的時候做這樣的事情,會否令英國進一步失去競爭力,英國人難道不用擔心,將來會自食其果?</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-13751970027179119212022-08-04T18:02:00.005-07:002022-08-04T18:02:57.984-07:00好文共享: 石鏡泉--來了,走了,怎了?<p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">《缸邊隨筆-石鏡泉》來了,走了,怎了?</span></p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 《缸邊隨筆》未來之前,怎知佩洛西來不來?記者問白宮國家安全發言人John </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">Kirby這問題,Kirby答,佩洛西如去,會坐軍機去。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 美國金融市場,已為可能出現的「大戰」先跌了下來。事實上,美國傳</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">媒報道了解放軍的五</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">個軍事反擊,簡括言是:</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> (1)The minimalist approach╱最低消費</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 解放軍佔領金門、馬祖,以及太平島。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> (2)Hybrid warfare╱立體戰</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 解放軍空軍與海軍「入侵」台灣海空,封鎖通訊,台軍被迫反擊,相互或爆衝突。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> (3)Serious attack but no invasion╱狠打但不「入</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">侵」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 導彈飽量打擊,使台北政府崩潰。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> (4)The Full Monty-a proper invasion╱全開打並</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">佔土地</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 啟動斬首行動,擒捉台北政府官員,佔領台北。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> (5)Worst Case(short of nuclear)scenario╱</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">最壞情況</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 軍民目標一起打,台軍民大量死傷,全佔台灣。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 嘩!中國人打中國人?你以為是你美國佬打敘利亞人、伊拉克人、伊朗人,無兄弟情誼、無</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">人道呀!北京和解放軍怎會做這五件事?不過,這就是美國佬生安白造的抹黑宣傳。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 北京和解放軍怎做了,以下是網上一個分析。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">*圍島軍演測試美國底線*</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 看到國家對此次佩洛西的整個行動,愈思考愈發覺深不可測,是一盤大棋,因此只想借您的</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">平台談一談。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 第一,國家這次前期造勢,聲調拔的很高,主要想達成三個目的:</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 其一,為了把佩洛西架火上烤,讓她不得不來,因為她不來,後續所有的棋都沒法走。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 其二,為了讓白宮和美國政府發聲,割裂佩洛西的行為不是美國政府行為。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 其三,造成一種態勢,類似於對付香港黑暴,讓牛鬼蛇神們都亮亮相。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 第二,為甚麼國家讓佩洛西降落台北松山機場?網民都很失望,又讓台灣自嗨一波?原因也</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">有三,而且我愈思考愈發現這步棋太牛逼了。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 其一,國際政治講究站理,如果解放軍直接攻擊佩洛西專機,根本站不到理上,因為白宮已</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">經對佩洛西的行為進行了割裂,後續根本不好收場,甚至在國際上會對中國造成極大的不利。甚</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">至我都懷疑,佩洛西來台灣本身就是有美國背後的大佬放的魚餌,引誘中國攻擊,把柄就是佩洛</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">西的老公,從而逼迫佩洛西來的,所以4月的時候,佩洛西「戰略陽性」一把,但是之後頻頻爆</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">出她老公的醜聞,背後大佬逼迫她來當誘餌。沒有美國軍隊明目張膽進台灣,中國對美國出手是</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">不站理的,後續對整個計劃都是極為不利,甚至是被美國牽著鼻子走。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 其二,中國的這次下的棋最重要一點就是佩洛西一定要來台灣,而且也一定要安全離開,原</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">因是,台灣問題是中國內政,明面上和美國是沒有關係的,中國為甚麼要和美國打?就像好多台</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">灣網友說甚麼,大陸不敢和美國打,就敢拿台灣撒氣之類的搞笑言語,我就想笑,真想大聲告訴</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">他們,中國內政和美國有甚麼關係!!!只有佩洛西來了,又走了,中國才能在國際上站住理,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">你做初一,我做十五,才會有後續的棋,並且是國際上沒辦法譴責中國的棋。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 其三,打掉佩洛西和伴飛驅離佩洛西都不能,因為驅離的話只是掙到面子,不會得到裏子,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">還會錯失幾十年來,下一步棋的最好機會。如果是打掉佩洛西的話,面子掙一晚上,裏子賠不知</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">道多少,而且還會給收復台灣帶來無窮阻力。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 第三點,圍島軍演。在佩洛西飛機降落大概15分鐘之後,這則消息一出,突然恍然大悟原</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">來棋眼在這裏,而且愈細思,愈是輰快,真是好一齣明修棧道,暗渡陳倉,只想拍手稱快。原來</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">之前外交部的發言,國防部的發言,甚至習拜打電話的時候,都是在做一場大戲,就是要把吊門</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">拉到那麼那麼高,好在全世界面前丟個面子,為的就是能順理成章的圍島,而不會有強大的阻礙</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">,因為我打佩洛西我不站理,但是我圍台灣島演戲,是我自己在自己地盤上,是佔理的。最關鍵</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">的是,美國也沒辦法硬氣的指摘中國單方面改變台海現狀,這是重中之重。至於為何要圍島軍演</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">,而不是直接打,我的分析有三點。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 其一,解放軍有個很牛逼的戰術叫你打你的,我打我的。佩洛西來台灣是你美國出招,我不</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">去打你佩洛西,那麼你這招就是打在空氣上,我解放軍順大勢圍島,這就是改被動為主動。主動</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">的單方面改變台海現狀。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 其二,圍島是對美國底線的最好測試,你美國軍隊敢不敢來?敢來可以名正言順的打,而且</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">我方佔理,因為我們在自己的地盤上軍演,是我們的內政,你美軍憑甚麼來?你美軍不來,就是</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">對島內2000多萬台灣百姓的最好統戰,上兵伐謀,攻心為上,太厲害了!!!</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 其三,圍島計劃,可以說是中央瞬間的反應,說明這步棋本身就是中國的應對,而且是上上</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">策的應對,圍台灣有第一次,就會有第二次,甚至可能就是新常態,而且大家想一下,台灣是個</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">島,不是烏克蘭,圍住了,能撐幾天?到時候一旦美軍不敢來,或者來了被解放軍逼退,台灣島</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">內2000多萬人還會有甚麼信心?到時候,圍個兩次,或者把這次圍島時間延長一下,3、5</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">、7天的,到時真的是兵不血刃就可以逼著台灣老百姓自己掛五星紅旗了。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 總之這次局面推演一下,真是中國共產黨幾十年的布局,甚至從96年之後,就已經成形的</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">布局,之前不停的譴責譴責,換來的就是他們放出了佩洛西這個誘餌,以為中國會咬鈎,結果他</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">們自己才是魚。哈哈哈哈!從今天開始,台海局勢從此逆轉,台灣再也不是中國的軟肋,以後我</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">們從被動徹底變為主動,只會聽到白宮發言人,不停譴責中國單方面破壞台海現狀的言語,而又</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">拿我們毫無辦法。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 另外,現在最關鍵的是佩洛西要在8月3號安全離開台灣,整個計劃就是完美了。我最擔心</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美國狗急跳牆,先想辦法犧牲掉佩洛西好換來藉口,如CIA暗殺佩洛西嫁禍給中共,有了藉口</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">,才有大勢,希望中央能有對策。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">*中美開始有冷戰*</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 治大國若烹小鮮,急不來,要慢火燉的。其中一燉是禁一些台農產和水產入口至大陸,但最</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">有制約力的是不出口砂至台灣。這些砂是風化砂,直徑在5毫米左右,要沒有其他雜質,是要來</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">造芯片的矽物料。台灣芯片公司逾九成「砂」是來自中國,而台積電等造了全球芯片的一半,如</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">今一禁,台、美均受制,稍遲Apple應要發下聲吧。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 之後怎了?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 中美會開始有冷戰,但不是美俄式的冷戰,會有幾冷,走著瞧。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" />春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-18687664293445909452022-08-03T18:10:00.002-07:002022-08-03T18:10:39.375-07:00好文共享——《缸邊隨筆-石鏡泉》怎瓦解美國霸權? <p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">《缸邊隨筆-石鏡泉》怎瓦解美國霸權?</span></p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 《缸邊隨筆》二戰後,美國3大戰略家:布熱津斯基、基辛格(Kissinger)及亨</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">廷頓(Huntington)對美國的地緣戰略和外交政策產生了極為深遠的影響,他們把美</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">國逐步扶上了全球霸主的地位。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 布</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">熱津斯基認為,如果世界地緣政治出現3個情況,將會瓦解美國的全球霸權,因此在其後</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">20多年,美國一直阻止以上情況發生,甚至不惜一戰。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 布熱津斯基所說的3個情況是甚麼呢?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 為何當今美國已經無法阻止布熱津斯基所認為的,最糟糕的第3種情況發生呢?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">*誘使蘇聯陷入阿富汗戰爭泥潭*</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 布熱津斯基在哈佛大學獲得博士學位後,任職哈佛俄國問題研究中心和國際問題中心研究員</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">。此後十餘年,他一直在研究國際地緣戰略問題,並發表過許多著作,後成為美國蘭德公司(著</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">名的綜合性戰略研究機構)的顧問。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 70年代初期,美蘇爭霸進行到第二階段,此時蘇聯處於攻勢,美國轉攻為守。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 為適應國際形勢的變化,以金融寡頭洛克菲勒為首的國際金融資本,找到布熱津斯基作代表</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">,吸收美國、歐洲、日本的大銀行家、資本家、政府要人和學界精英參加,成立頂級私密精英社</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">團三邊委員會,協調各國在重大國際問題上的立場。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 同時,通過三邊委員會構築的關係網,向各國政府輸送他們的代理人,以達到控制各國政府</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">,為壟斷資本利益而服務的目的。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 1976年,在國際金融資本的操作下,農場主卡特成為美國總統。卡特上台後,布熱津斯</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">基獲委任為國家安全事務助理,成為了美國外交政策的實際操控者。此後幾年,布熱津斯基多次</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">建議卡特全力支持阿富汗的反蘇派,以誘使蘇聯出兵。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 過程中,他與基辛格一起,為推動中美1979年正式建交,發揮了極為重要的作用。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">1979年,蘇聯以援助為名,派兵佔領阿富汗北部地區,與阿富汗人民展開曠日持久的戰爭。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 布熱津斯基得知消息後,寫信給卡特:「蘇聯終於陷入了戰爭的泥潭,這場戰爭必將導致蘇</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">聯最終瓦解……」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 當時的蘇聯,擁有4萬枚核彈、6萬輛坦克及549萬軍隊,國力如日中天。布熱津斯基的</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">預測也被許多人認為狂妄無知,並沒受到廣泛認可。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 卡特下台後,布熱津斯基也離開政壇,回到哥倫比亞大學教書,但一直沒有放棄試圖在幕後</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">操縱美國政治的企圖。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 1986年,布熱津斯基寫了一本名叫《競賽方案》的書,內容大致是美蘇冷戰時期,美國</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">必須遵循的地緣戰略綱領。他在書中指出:美蘇之間的競爭,不僅僅是兩個國家的競爭,而是兩</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">個帝國體系間的競爭,是人類歷史上,第一次兩個國家為了全球優勢而競爭。雖然都是超級大國</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">,但是蘇聯明顯「發育不良」,只要蘇聯不戰勝就會失敗,只要美國不戰敗就是勝利。美國只要</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">立足於文化優勢,再進行全球戰略設計,蘇聯必將解體。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 蘇聯解體後,美國應該設法從東西方擠壓俄羅斯,促使中國、印度、土耳其、伊朗、俄羅斯</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">等地區強國,圍繞裏海--波斯灣資源圈,互相展開激烈競爭。在此過程中,美國只要進行制衡</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">分化,即可穩坐釣魚船。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 1991年12月25日,蘇聯瓦解,美國人想起了那個在十幾年前便積極推行和平演變,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">引誘蘇聯進攻阿富汗的人。於是,布熱津斯基一夜之間聲名大噪,成為世界級的「大戰略家」,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">也再次成為美國政府最重要的智囊。此後,美國的外交政策都按照布熱津斯基設計的地緣政治框</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">架進行,所有的戰略設想都得到完美實現,也實現了對全球事務的領導。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">*提出「奶頭樂」理論,制定和平演變計劃*</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 1995年,在美國三藩市舉行了一個滙集全球500名政治精英的會議,與會者包括英國</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">首相戴卓爾夫人、美國總統老布殊、CNN、惠普、微軟的創辦人等。這些來自社會頂層的精英</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">人士,紛紛表達了對未來世界的擔憂。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 他們認為,隨著世界發展,社會財富會加速流向20%的有錢人,剩下80%的人財富會嚴</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">重縮水,這會爆發社會矛盾,如何解決?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 在大會上,布熱津斯基提出了他的解決方案「奶頭樂理論」。其理論核心是:由於生產力的</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">不斷上升,世界上大部分人口將不必也無法積極參與產品和服務的生產。為安慰這些「被遺棄」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">的人,避免產生階級衝突,其中一個方法是:製造「奶頭」,並餵之以「奶頭」--讓令人陶醉</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">的消遣娛樂和充滿感官刺激的產品(例如網絡、電視和遊戲等)填滿民眾的生活,轉移其注意力</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">和不滿情緒,令他們沉浸在各種「快樂」中,在不知不覺間喪失思考能力,無心挑戰現有的統治</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">階級。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 以美國來說,「1美元炸雞」、「2美元漢堡」保證社會底層人民的基本生存,然後每年拍</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">大量的電影、電視劇,製作出各種各樣的遊戲,讓這些窮人忙碌起來,沒有時間去思考一些複雜</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">的東西,這樣便可維持美國社會的基本穩定。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 同時,背後還有另一個「黑箱」操作。如果有國家不受美國大金融資本的控制,不受美國政</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">府的歡迎,美國就把黑手伸入這個國家,布熱津斯基還為此制定出一個計劃:</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 一、用金錢利益,收買這個國家的精英階層;</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 二、用美國的價值觀,改變這個國家人民的價值觀;</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 三、如果強硬的政府無法滲透,就扶持或收買民間組織;</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 四、扶持敵人的敵人,來實現國際制約;</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 五、收買這個國家的武裝力量,協助政權更替;</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 六、直接消滅反美政權,扶持傀儡政權統治。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 這便是這20年來,世界上有不少國家,紛紛爆發各種「顏色革命」,所謂和平演變的源頭</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">。美國曾也想在中國搞這一套,但是其陰謀被中國粉碎,那個「公知時代」也就此隕落。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">*要如何應付中國的崛起*</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 1997年,布熱津斯基又寫了一本叫《大棋局》的書,論述了在未來20年內,可能會導</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">致美國全球霸權崩潰的3種情況:俄歐聯盟、中日聯盟、中俄伊聯盟。同年,關於中國未來的發</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">展,他作出這樣的預測:</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 「中國到2020年會成為『地區主導大國』,在亞太地區擁有一個勢力範圍或受別國敬服</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">的範圍,而不可能成為在各個主要領域都富於競爭力的全球性大國,儘管中國可能有此企圖。」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 「中國一定會發展壯大,這將為世界所公認,但不管中國多麼強大,它都不會去爭奪所謂主</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">導權,無論是地區的還是全球的,因此勢力範圍的概念是和他套不上的。」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 布熱津斯基又認為,美國一定要極力避免中、俄、伊結成大聯盟的情況,因為這對美國霸權</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">是最大的潛在危險。為了防止出現這種情況,美國必須同時在歐亞大陸的西部、東部和南部邊緣</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">施展地緣戰略手段。他認為,只有在美國同時對中國和伊朗採取敵對政策時,中俄伊「反霸權」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">聯盟才會形成。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 特朗普當選總統後,卻做了布熱津斯基最擔憂的事情。在他任內,中伊兩國簽署了25年全</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">面合作協議,其中包括中國投資伊朗能源和基礎設施、石油和貿易用人民幣結算等。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 美國政府的短視,不但打破了布熱津斯基設計的「大棋局」,結果反而朝著他預測的最壞局</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">面發展:中、俄、伊三國被迫形成「反霸權」聯盟。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 面對這樣的結局,布熱津斯基不得不感歎:「長期狂妄自大造成文化上的享樂主義,使政治</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">精英逐漸喪失了雄心壯志。美國人也不再願意為社會作出犧牲。文化上的衰敗、政治上的分裂、</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">財政上的通脹加在一起,使帝國的根基已搖搖欲墜,倒下去只是時間問題。」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 2014年,克里米亞危機之後,布熱津斯基便預言了俄羅斯將對烏克蘭採取軍事行動。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 他向美國政府建議:「西方應該重申,它希望與俄羅斯和平共處,以一起幫助烏克蘭實現經</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">濟復甦和政治穩定。西方應該再向俄羅斯保證,它不會將烏克蘭拉入北約或讓烏克蘭與俄羅斯對</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">立。」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 當時,布熱津斯基與另一位國師級人物米爾斯海默(在對華政策上,與布熱津斯基意見相左</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">者),均對未來局勢做了預測:</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 一、烏克蘭不能加入北約,否則俄羅斯一定會發動戰爭。二、美國不會派兵,但是會對俄羅</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">斯施壓。三、北約和美國不親自下場,俄羅斯必贏;如果美、歐親自下場,那麼會將整個人類拖</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">進核戰的危險境地。不過,自布熱津斯基2017年逝世後,美國那些短視的政客,只看到了眼</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">前的利益,更將烏克蘭人民當成用來對抗俄羅斯的工具,最終導致俄烏戰爭爆發。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 2022年,俄烏戰爭爆發後,美國「鷹派」的代表米爾斯海默,這個終其一生,為美國「</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">霸權」出謀劃策的戰略大師也譴責說:</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 「我一生都在研究大國政治。在俄烏戰爭中,誰要為這次戰爭負責?有些人認為是俄羅斯,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">尤其是普京應該負責,我完全不同意這種觀點。在我看來,歐、美對今天發生的事情負有主要責</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">任。它在很大程度上,是由一場美國支持的政變促成的。北約東擴是動了俄羅斯的紅線,克里米</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">亞、格魯吉亞已經證明。現在,西方依舊要把武器布置到烏克蘭,當你已經把熊逼到了角落,還</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">『用木棍去戳熊的眼睛』,是一定會被揍的。」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 米爾斯海默認為,美國不會親自介入,俄羅斯會贏。他解釋:「在這場我們與俄羅斯的競賽</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">中,你們會想誰的決心更大?美國人不太關心烏克蘭,他們不會為烏克蘭流血和犧牲。」同時,</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">他也表達了對核戰的擔憂:「我們正在把一個核武大國逼入牆角。」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">(以上為網上文章)</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 結語:甚麼是國師的遠見和智慧,大家看到了。如果連兩位美國國師對今時美國國策都予以</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">譴責和擔憂時,美國霸權還能保得多久?</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-49769647829989969202022-07-07T17:48:00.000-07:002022-07-07T17:48:03.943-07:00香港耽擱太久 重新上路 - 摘录雷鼎鸣先生文章<p><br /></p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">從1997到2021年的24年間,香港的GDP扣掉通脹後共上升90.8%,平均每年增長2.73%,至於人均GDP則共上升67%,平均每年增長2.16%,成績尚算不錯。有些人或會說,英佔年代,不是更好嗎?從1972至1997年,實質GDP平</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">均年增長7%,人均GDP年增長則是5.07%,香港的確無愧於四小龍之稱。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">港回歸後 GDP遠勝英國</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">但這是因為英國的因素嗎?我們再看看英國自己的表現便知這更可能是一個負面因素。從1997至2021年,英國實質GDP只增長了48.4%,遠遜香港的90.8%,人均GDP也只是上升了26.86%,同樣比不上同期的香港。英國自己也管不好,如何可管好香港?事實上,今天香港的人均GDP早已超越了英國。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">香港回歸後的經濟發展雖然及格,但她在這25年間,卻曾經歷了多次磨難:亞洲金融風暴、長達6年的通縮、金融海嘯、歐債危機、反國教運動、非法佔中、美國發動的貿易戰、黑暴事件、美國搞的地緣政治,觸目驚心!但除了國際因素外,97後25年的香港民主程度又高於97前25年的英佔時期,而英國的西方民主亦比香港成熟,不能不使人懷疑所謂民主這玩意,並不見得是有利發展經濟的因素。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">政治走了彎路 現回正軌</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">香港回歸以來,在政治上走了不少彎路,在摸索中前進,現在有可能已逐漸走上正軌。習近平的七一講話,與其說是一種指導性講話,不妨說是一種對過去25年的精確總結與論斷,香港繼續前進的方向又再現眼前。要解讀其講話,可以用較深奧的辯證法哲學語言,但也可以用普通常識。習主席說了些甚麼?最重要的部分應是4個「必須」︰全面準確貫徹一國兩制方針、堅持中央全面管治權與特區高度自治權相統一、愛國者治港、保持香港的獨特地位與優勢。所謂「必須」,便是一定要貫徹的,不能拖延,而且4個「必須」全都有針對性,亦即過去貫徹得不太理想,否則何用提出?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">西方國家不少不認同一國兩制的人總是認為一國與兩制充滿矛盾,不會成功。但在商業世界中,一所母公司與其子公司擁有不同的管理制度與策略又有何奇?母公司與子公司產權可以一致,子公司亦可以是一間有限公司,進行一些母公司不想做的項目。既然商業世界可以有母公司子公司,為何一國兩制便不可行?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">母公司對子公司可擁有全面管治權,這完全可體現在母公司有權把子公司的管理人員炒掉,但在日常操作中,這無損於子公司的管理層有高度的自主權。若無出現大差錯,或一直沒違反母公司所定下的方向,誰會無事找事幹預其方向?只是香港這25年來,一直有些人搞不清位置,以為子公司可完全不理會母公司的主權與利益,甚至井水犯河水,涉事者不被炒掉才奇怪。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">拒母公司管治 早晚丟職</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">愛國者治港更易理解。委派的CEO及一眾公司高層,怎可能會找些熱衷於搞私幫生意,不把公司利益放在第一位的人去擔任?疑人不用,用人不疑,此乃普通管理常識,但香港過去硬是有一大批人頭腦發熱或是渾水摸魚,拒絕承認母公司的主權,公司要經歷一場地震是早晚之事,失去職位與人無尤。在未來的一段很長時間,公司選人會十分慎重,若選舉辦法不能保證把權力交給願意保護公司利益的人,便不會靠選舉制度去配置權力。25年來,這個簡單的管理命題得不到落實,是拖慢香港發展的重要元兇,當管理人才中都是愛國者當道時,選舉的適用性才會再出現。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">香港的獨特地位與優勢,中國當然不會放棄。一所母公司往往擁有多間子公司,後者又會有不同品牌的產品。建立品牌不易,產品有了品牌後,大家都知其特性與優點,容易維持及推廣市場份額,公司沒有誘因不去維護品牌。香港是自由市場,幾乎沒有關稅,資金自由流通,行使普通法,這些優勢或特色市場熟悉得很,很多事香港做得到的,中國內地卻不方便,笨蛋才會自毀長城,放棄自己的優勢。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">儘管中國要面對極為複雜的國際局勢,但她的發展動力還是勢不可擋的。無論香港能否跟得上,中國還是會向前跑,而且跑得很快。香港要跟得上,並且能與內地互相推進,對港對內地都大有好處。時間耽擱得已太久,未來5年不快馬加鞭重新上路便趕不上了,所以習主席對香港還有4個「希望」︰提高治理水準、增強發展動能、排解民生憂難、維護和諧穩定。他再加一點,關心關愛青年人。只要熟悉近年的港情,便都一定明白這些希望全都是有的放矢,切中時弊。</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-12904465140258633322022-03-08T17:00:00.003-08:002022-03-08T17:00:54.724-08:00摘录施永青先生文章- 國際政治只講強權不講公理<p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">國際政治只講強權不講公理</span></p><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">俄羅斯明目張膽揮軍入侵烏克蘭,企圖以軍事力量把自己的意志強加在烏克蘭身上,這當然不符合國際公義。烏克蘭是獨立主權國,理論上當然可以有自己的外交政策,可以選擇與哪些國家結盟,亦有權選擇不與哪些國家交往。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">然而,這只是道理</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">上如是,現實政治的演變卻是由強權主導。一個國家若是沒有實力地位,即使有公理在手,最終亦難逃被強權主宰的命運。我們只要翻開歷史,這樣的事例比比皆是。弱國無外交,因為上帝不會開庭接受弱國的申訴,而現實世界卻缺乏一個可以為公理執法的機構。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">如果只是旁觀者,且遠離現場,那我們當然可以千秋功罪隨意評說。不過,若是被捲入了利益爭奪的漩渦,我們就必須按照實力地位權衡自己的處境,然後才能判斷自己該站的位置,以免招來無妄之災。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">不少人,在評論烏克蘭問題時只顧公理。這是因為公理早已十分清楚,不用詳加分析;但如果我們要分析往後的形勢發展,那我們就必須掌握事件背後的政治現實,才能了解各方利益所在,以推論他們會願意付出多大的代價。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">老實說,我並不相信西方國家支持烏克蘭是出自公義,而不是為了擴大自己的勢力範圍。如果公義在他們心目中真的這麼重要,那為甚麼他們只是推烏克蘭去與俄羅斯衝突,而自己卻鐵石心腸堅持不派一兵一卒去烏克蘭與烏克蘭人民並肩作戰呢?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">正是因為西方從一開始就聲明只會對俄羅斯作經濟制裁,不會作一絲兒的軍事介入,才鼓勵了俄羅斯毫無顧忌地入侵烏克蘭。西方有這樣的選擇,不是正好證明連西方自己也在某種程度上向強權屈服了嗎?西方自己知道對強權的存在不可視若無睹,卻叫烏克蘭人不畏強權,一定要和俄羅斯戰爭到底。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">最可笑的是,西方國家一方面說要維護烏克蘭選擇加盟北約的自由,但當烏克蘭一再公開表示要申請加入北約,卻認為現階段不可能接受烏克蘭這樣做。如果北約自己畏於強權不敢接受烏克蘭加入,那為甚麼還去鼓勵烏克蘭在這個問題上不斷刺激俄羅斯?西方國家是這麼著緊去維護國際公義嗎?還是想推動烏克蘭與俄羅斯發生衝突?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">歷史上,西方國家從來都不尊重別國的主權獨立。他們在成長的過程中,無不大量侵入別國的領土,掠奪別國的資源,奴役別國的人民。他們主張的人權、自由、民主,都只屬自己圍內人的專利,而不是普惠世人的。他們近年之所以花氣力去宣揚普世價值,是要把不接受他們擺布的國家視作邪惡國家,好讓他們去侵略這些國家時出師有名。二戰以來,美國就利用自己的軍事力量入侵過無數國家,要別國做他的附庸,哪有尊重別國的主權?</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-46148828500131592902022-03-03T17:27:00.000-08:002022-03-03T17:27:02.678-08:00 摘录雷鼎鸣先生文章:- 北約才是烏克蘭危機始作俑者 財經/地產<p> 可惜太多人人云亦云,看到战争,听到美国,欧盟白人帮的谴责,就跟着吆喝,却不去了解历史的原因和事情是如何开始的源头。</p><p> 战争打响,去顾着谴责俄罗斯,为什么当年叙利亚战争,阿富汗战争,伊朗战争的时候,没有人去谴责美国?欧盟?这个世界在这些自以为是的白人帮的扰乱下,只有他们的强权掠夺是正确的,别族的为自己争取安全和平就是错误的,这是什么道理?站在道德的高地,并煽风点火,为什么他们就是正确的?为什么话语权就要在他们手中?</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">北約才是烏克蘭危機始作俑者 </span></p><img src="https://resource01-proxy.ulifestyle.com.hk/res/v3/image/content/3190000/3194121/20220304JEB001__20220304_L.jpg" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1) 1px 1px 5px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px; max-width: 100%; padding: 5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">俄羅斯派兵攻入烏克蘭,雖然目標主要是軍事設施,但總也會殃及一些平民,不少烏克蘭人因此而逃亡,也有些躲在地下設施中,苟存性命於亂世。戰爭從來不是好事,但只要深研一下相關歷史,便知此災難的始作俑者是以美國為主導的北約,這個軍事同盟應為當地</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">人民的傷亡負起主要責任!</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">問題的核心是北約這個組織為了要證明自己有存在價值而不斷東擴。北約在1949年成立,目的本是要制衡意識形態及制度上完全不同的蘇聯。當蘇聯在1991年解體,俄羅斯又與西方諸國十分友好之時,北約便再無存在價值,敵人都消失了,軍費還不快點用回在民生之上?但北約卻不作此想,從1999年開始反而進行了5次東擴,多吸納了14個國家,直抵俄羅斯邊境。也許在90年代俄羅斯還不明白北約的意圖,但普京2000年向克林頓試探,若俄加入北約,美國的態度會如何?普京從克林頓的回應中清楚知道北約的假想敵正是俄羅斯,如何可能讓俄加入?不過,那時俄羅斯已因葉利欽的荒唐而自廢了武功,普京上位後也只能忍辱負重,眼睜睜的看著北約把飛彈搬到自己家門口,對準自己的心臟。普京也明白,俄羅斯幅員廣大,資源豐富,又有核武,一定招人忌憚,無論俄如何我本將心向明月,誰知明月照溝渠。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美雙重標準 不欲武器對準門口</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">2008年是關鍵的一年,北約在羅馬尼亞首都布加勒斯特開峰會,計劃邀請烏克蘭及格魯吉亞加入北約。俄立時劃下紅綫,認為這對俄羅斯的國家安全構成嚴重威脅,當時美駐俄的大使及美國不少有識之士都認同俄的說法。歷史上,美國自己實施過門羅主義,不容許任何敵對國家在西半球部署武力。1962年蘇聯因美國在土耳其早已部署了核武對準自己而決定依樣葫蘆,在古巴也部署對準美國本土的核彈,幾乎引起了足可毀滅世界的古巴危機,最後在美蘇兩國的政治家共同努力下而化解了危機。90年代有套奇雲高士拿主演的電影《驚天十三日》對此描述甚詳,我最近把此電影連看了幾回。古巴危機顯示出美國自己也認為讓外國軍事力量在自己門口把武器對準自己是不可接受的,正如周潤發在《英雄本色》中有名言︰「我不喜歡被人用槍指著個頭」,但美國慣用雙重標準,根本沒當普京的警告是一回事。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">俄羅斯並無就此便放棄外交上的努力。2009年俄提出,只要北約答應在有爭議性的區域剔除北約的第5條,即不用與這些區域軍事上聯防,那麼俄也不反對烏加入北約。很可惜北約仍把俄視作二等國家,不加理會。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">普京此人顯然為心智堅定的猛男,俄遭此羞辱,也許使他更相信北約的目標是要使俄進一步解體。我則傾向北約的將軍們也正為蘇聯解體而十分失落,沒有了敵人後,自己的飯碗也頓成問題,他們為求生存,會努力製造新的敵人。步步進逼,是必由之路。普京不會亂打無把握之仗,俄羅斯在他手上經濟雖因石油價格被壓而蒙受損失,但仍逐漸復甦,並把國債還清,還順便替烏克蘭還了外債。說此人能臥薪嘗膽也未嘗不可。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">2014年烏克蘭政變,親俄的民選總統被逐下台,烏便日漸走上自毀之路。《韓非子.亡徵十五》有雲︰「國小而不處卑,力少而不畏強,無禮而侮大鄰,貪愎而拙交者,可亡也。」烏克蘭卻犯上了以上所有的亡徵,明知自己實力難與俄相比,不但老是想加入北約,還利用新納粹分子不斷攻擊及迫害烏克蘭東部俄羅斯種族的人民。這是在自己作死了。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">北約似乎也樂見此事,反正衝擊愈多,北約愈可辯說自己有存在價值,美國也有藉口繼續控制歐洲。當中最大的受害者卻是烏克蘭人民。此國因內訌、貪汙及領導不懂治國,未有戰爭之前已是一個沒有希望的國家,逾4,000萬人口竟有600萬人跑到外國工作以養活家人,我在內地也見到過不少烏克蘭移民。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">烏應中立 當俄及北約橋樑</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">烏克蘭的最好出路便是中立,不傾向俄或北約,只充當兩者的橋樑。但其喜劇演員出身的總統並無此智慧,烏雖名義上未加入北約,但卻早已接受其武裝,去年竟有2萬北約軍事人員在烏。普京此人並非可隨便當他無到,忍了10多年,外交上別人不理他,他惟有高呼「Enough is enough」,普京大帝一聲吼,地球也要抖三抖!俄羅斯的核彈頭比包括美國在內的北約還要多,不理會她的安全顧慮怎麼可能?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美國其實也不敢與俄開戰,只能雷聲大雨點小,怕一發不可收拾,也怕中俄一旦雙劍合璧,天下難攖其鋒。用經濟制裁的方法從來都是七傷拳,歐洲尤其叫苦連天,惟有希望天氣早日回暖,不用消耗這麼多能源。更值得擔憂的是俄會如何報復,普京說可使她們體驗歷史上未有見過的困境,恐非虛言,例如俄的網絡攻擊非常厲害,足可使西方經濟嚴重受損。俄現在列出清單,要烏撤走北約的武器,便肯撤軍,烏應答應。</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-12467943765878039252022-02-21T16:45:00.003-08:002022-02-21T16:45:56.351-08:00摘录施永青先生文章 - 把阿富汗的資產用來賠償9.11苦主恰當嗎?<p> 很多人对国际新闻事务,或者别的弱小国家的新闻可能只求看过了,而不去追究稍微深一些,感谢有施先生这样的有责任之士把事情刨析的一下,让有心人再去解读一番。希望更多的人能够认识事情本质。 </p><p><br /></p><p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">把阿富汗的資產用來賠償9.11苦主恰當嗎?</span></p><img src="https://d5ttlem47o98b.cloudfront.net/s3fs-public/styles/article_image/public/2022-02/07-04_3.jpg?itok=oB01L59f" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1) 1px 1px 5px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px; max-width: 100%; padding: 5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">日前,美國總統簽署行政命令,把塔利班重掌政權後被凍結在美國的資產解封,一半用作賠償9.11事件中罹難者的家屬,另一半用作對阿富汗的人道援助,主要透過聯合國屬下的援助組織去進行。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">為</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">此,塔利班政府當然提出強烈抗議,認為美國是強搶阿富汗人民的財產,體現美國政府在道德上的墮落。阿富汗各地亦爆發一連串的抗議活動,重申阿富汗人民永遠不會接受別國可以自把自為,把阿富汗的外匯儲備隨便凍結或作其他用途。連阿富汗前總統卡爾紮伊也認為美國這樣做,是對阿富汗人民的暴行。卡爾紮伊是2001年上次塔利班倒台後,由美國扶植出來的首任總統,他的立場一向親美,連他也這樣說,顯示美國今次這樣做是多麼不恰當。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">原因是塔利班上台後,立即受到美國及其盟友的嚴格制裁,不但受到戰爭長期破壞的經濟無法收復,連人道援助亦因外匯中斷而無法進行。入冬以來,阿富汗糧食不足,可謂飢寒交迫,如果還得不到及時援助,估計有一百萬兒童可能因而喪失生命,所以大部分國際救援組織,都贊成把這筆解封的資金全部用作對阿富汗的人道援助。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">這筆錢主要是阿富汗中央銀行放在國外的外匯儲備,據國際貨幣基金會估計,總數約有95億美元,主要放在美國,亦有部分放在歐洲。國際救援組織為緩和阿富汗的人道危機,當然希望能把所有的錢都花在阿富汗的人道援助上,其迫切性遠大於放在對9.11罹難者的賠償上。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">國際救援組織覺得美國在作出這項決定時,應更多地諮詢持份者的意見,亦應該檢討做法是否符合國際法,更應該衡量一下怎樣分配法才能令更多的人得益。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">今次美國解封的資金共70億元,若一半分給阿富汗人民,以阿富汗3,900萬人口計,每人只得89.7美元。若把另一半分給9.11的罹難者家屬,9.11有近2,996個罹難者,每個罹難者的家屬可得1,168,224美元。阿富汗人一人分不到一百美元,而美國的罹難者卻一個人分到超過一百萬美元。這可反映,在美國人心目中,阿富汗人的生命真是doesn’t matter。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">如果美國當阿富汗人的生命這麼doesn’t matter,為何當初會為了阿富汗人民能過更美好的生活就不惜長期駐軍阿富汗?前後二十年間,美國死了約2,000人,花費了約二萬億美金,美國究竟是為了自己的利益?還是為了阿富汗的利益?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">若果美國是不想阿富汗落在塔利班手裡,才把軍隊留在阿富汗,那為甚麼20年後,又親手把政權移交給塔利班?誰知移交後又立即制裁塔利班,說塔利班是邪惡政權;若塔利班真的是邪惡政權,美國又為何會把阿富汗人民的命運移交給邪惡政權?這一切只能是從美國的利益出發才說得通的,從阿富汗人民的利益出發是怎也說不通的。</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-57648594100180394212022-02-10T17:28:00.000-08:002022-02-10T17:28:02.378-08:00摘录:- 中俄聯合聲明與民主理論創新 - 雷鼎鳴<p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">冬奧在京舉行,固然使人興奮,但若論對當今國際局勢的影響,普京乘冬奧之便訪華,中俄兩國發表了《聯合聲明》,也許更值得我們研判。</span></p><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">這份聲明的第一部份</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">便把重點放在民主理論與實踐上,為何一個涉及兩國戰略合作的聲明會如此「務虛」而不是「務實」?若細看內容,這段文字非同小可,一套新的民主理論,可挑戰傳統西方民主理論的雛形已然被勾勒出來,足可讓後世忙於辯論。</span><span style="background-color: #fcff01; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">在大國博弈中,硬實力銳實力當然重要,但若缺少了軟實力,也會十分吃虧,而軟實力中,自己制度的優越性是否得到認同會起很大作用,認同感又無可避免地要建基於一套完整理論。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">《聯合聲明》中對民主提出了甚麼觀點?《聲明》第一部份開宗明義表明,「民主是全人類的共同價值,不是少數國家的專利。」這段說話已等提出挑戰:不是西方國家的一套才可稱為民主,中俄的同樣是民主。那麼民主的目標或定義若何?「民主是公民參與管理本國事務的途徑」,這與林肯的「民治」(by the people)並無重大分別;「旨在增進民生福祉」,這顯然與林肯的「民享」(for the people)一脈相承;「實現人民當家作主」,這也可理解為林肯的民有(of the people)。由此可見,中俄聲明中民主的目標或定義與西方的一套並無本質上的區別。那麼西方或美式民主觀與中俄民主觀主要分別在哪裏?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">眾所周知,西方或美式民主的核心是一人一票的投票機制,當然也有其他機制的配合,但一人一不卻是其核心。這個機制是否能達到「民治」、「民享」和「民有」,卻是另一碼子事,中俄兩國不見得相信西方的制度有此功能,就算在西方國家這些目標可以達到,也不見得這些機制或手段在中俄行得通或有不錯的效果。「各國人民有權選擇適合本國國情的民主實踐形式和方式。」是否民主,「只能這個國家的人民來評判。」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">中俄不採用手段或機制來界定管治制度是否民主,那用甚麼標準?是用效果。聲明認為中俄的民主傳絀植根於千年的發展經驗,「受到本國人民廣泛的支持,體現了公民的需求和利益。」這觀點話中有話,西方民主徒重形式,若效果不佳,社會問題叢生,怎可能體現出民主精神的真諦?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">這種角度,若在二、三十年以前提出,恐怕無甚說服力,今天則不同。西方形式主義的民主當中隱藏的缺陷已相繼浮現了出來。政客參與選舉,最重要是能否取得足夠競選經費或得到某些重要傳媒支持,選舉時要懂得甜言蜜言,每四年或五年開一些空頭支票,迎合到當時的思潮(可能是人為製造出來的)便可。近日美國有學的研究也發現,大多數選民的利益,並沒有影響到政府的政策,反而少數利益團體更能左右政策取向。每幾年一次的選舉及換人,也使政策缺乏連貫性,例如奧巴馬推動了個TPP架構,特朗普一上台便把它廢掉,美國過去簽過的各種國際協議也有此下場。但最使人對西式投票制度失去信心的是為何可以選出特朗普此等奇葩及約翰遜此等大話精?我們若再看看西方國家領袖在執政一段時候下的支持率,常會慘不忍睹,拜登「只得」百分之五十六的人認為他做得差勁,約翰遜卻足有百分之七十三的人認為他不行。反觀中國,國際上的民意調查卻發現百分之九十三至九十五的中國人民滿意政府。如此的結果,美國有何理據認為自己的一套優越?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">經濟學中的「社會選擇」理論多年前已指出,一個獨立生存或運作的個體,是不需要民主制度的,例如流落荒島的魯賓遜自己會管自己,民主毫無意義。但假如一個群體要作出一個集體決定,例如一個鄉村要不要大家集資建一道橋,那麼民主便有意義。</span><span style="background-color: #fcff01; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">當前世界各國有自主權利決定如何管理自己的國家,只要其政策不涉及侵犯別的國家的自由,別國又有個理據可把自己認同的制度強加於人?《聯合聲明》中特別反對這種作風,認為這是對民主的背叛</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">。這個說法符合現代經濟理論。在社會選擇理論中,獨裁者是如此被定義的:假設甲是A的選擇,而A選了甲後,那麼A便是一個獨裁者。按此定義,美國在國際關係上便是一個獨裁者。她認為只有她的制度才對,不接受她制度的,可被轟炸,也被其挑起顏色革命政府被推翻掉。這不是獨裁是甚麼?《聯合聲明》中指出這是背叛民主,並無說錯。但西方國家常會用雙重標準看事,要她們承認此批評,難矣哉!</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-32407735240968197212022-02-06T16:54:00.000-08:002022-02-06T16:54:05.006-08:00 摘录汤先生文章: - 中國為世界建做一艘新諾亞方舟<p> </p><table class="" style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse; 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height: auto; max-width: 120px; vertical-align: middle; width: 120px;" /></div><div id="div-info" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><h1 id="title" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: 標楷體; font-size: 23pt; line-height: 32px; margin: 10px 0px 0px;">中國為世界建做一艘新諾亞方舟</h1><div style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; height: 24px;"> </div><h2 id="name" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 12pt; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 標楷體; font-size: 20pt; line-height: 22pt;">湯文亮</span>博士</h2><div id="desc" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 16pt;">紀惠集團行政總裁</div><div id="date" style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 16pt;">2022年2月5日</div></div></div></div><div style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; float: left; margin-top: 20px; width: 987px;"><div style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839;"><p style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; margin-block: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; min-height: 1em;"> 兩年前武漢爆發新冠病毒,香港封城,香港人是全世界最可憐,國內<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>人可以由廣東去新疆,台灣人由台北去高雄,澳門可以入珠海,而香<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>港人只能留在香港,邊度都唔可以去,就算連我自己都有多少英雄被<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>困筲箕灣,未知何日上中環感覺,不過,我做過一些調查,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>發覺贊成繼續封關的人比開關的多很多,大約八二之比,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>所以香港政府沒有解封的壓力,如果香港是靠旅遊業,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>現在一定有市民示威遊行,要求政府開關,老實說,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>香港沒有解封主動權,一切要待中央政府拍板,我相信離開解封的日<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>子不遠,快則在冬奧之後,慢則在今年內一定會解封。<br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /> 有專家話,新冠的最新病毒Omicron ,殺傷力弱,傳染力強,就算確診都好似流感,唔食藥都會自動好返<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>,所以,全世界應該解封,但亦有專家話,新冠不同流感,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>不是支氣管病,而是肺病,確診之後有什麼後遺症,大家現在都未知<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>,雖然話會自動好返,萬一在幾個月之後發覺個肺花了,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>就會很大件事,英國亦在市民強烈要求下,首相約翰遜才宣布解封,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>他日有確診者出事,英國市民就唔好怪首相。<br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /> 以往專家提倡的是群體免疫,現在是與病毒共存,代表解封是有一定<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>風險,但世界是要運行,如果唔解封影響可能會更大,兩者取其輕,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>解封亦不失是一個辦法,在英國解封之後,解封矛頭就指向中國,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>就算IMF總裁亦話,中國清零政策是成功,但如果繼續清零,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>不但中國會受到損失,甚至全世界都受到損失,所以,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>中國應及早解封,IMF總裁不知道,中國對於解封取態,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>非不為也,實不能也。<br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /> 現在這個世界是好似一架殲-20戰機,雙引擎發動,任何一個引擎<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>失效,另外一個引擎仍然可以令戰機飛行,甚至可以戰鬥,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>但如果將兩個引擎合而為一,速度可能更快,但如果失效,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>就會以大角度墮機,如果中國在未有萬全之策下解封,確診數字上升<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>是必然的事,假如新冠病毒再次變異,變得殺傷力更強,更易傳染,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>到時全世界就會束手無策,甚至會怪責中國政府解封。<br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;" /> 其實,所有國家應該支持中國政府為這個世界建做一艘新諾亞方舟,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>如果新冠病毒再次轉強,令到全世界生產力下降,糧食供應不足,這<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>個時候還有中國可以肩負起照顧全世界這個重任,但新冠病毒如果專<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>家所料,慢慢變弱,與人類共存,中國所做的工作就好似陸地建方舟<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>,如果沒有大洪水就白費了,損失亦由中國承擔,所以,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>點解要中國強行解封,除非歐美國家知道與病毒共存是慌言,<wbr style="border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></wbr>一定要拉中國落水。</p></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-77906576594477415112022-01-20T16:40:00.004-08:002022-01-20T16:40:58.202-08:00摘录施永青先生文章: 司法為行政服務,祖高域被拒入境<p> 前言,个人看到Djokovic的境遇,只能用政治决定来解释,世界上很多的Djokovic hater 都开心的很,用一个高尚的理由说明他不能入境,其实个人支持打疫苗的,只就事论事,如果Djokovic 是美国人,我肯定澳洲政府可以找一个非常接近圆满的理由让他入境,或者法庭初判他胜诉,澳洲政府已经可以不了了之了。All about political bullshit. </p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">司法為行政服務,祖高域被拒入境</span></p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">塞爾維亞網球選手祖高域是當今球壇「一哥」,已奪得20次大滿貫,平了拿度與費達拿的紀錄,如果能在這次澳洲網球賽奪標,將是歷史上第一個拿到第21場大滿貫的球手。塞爾維亞舉國上下對此都寄予厚望。可惜,祖高域來到澳洲門口,卻在機場被拒入境,因而沒法圓夢。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">澳洲政府拒絕祖高域入境的理由是他沒有接種防疫針:但祖高域並非硬闖,他在來澳洲之前已獲賽事主辦單位澳洲職業網球聯合會,以及賽事舉辦地維多利亞地方政府豁免打防疫針,原因是祖高域早前已確診受感染,身體已有抗體。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">祖高域因而訴諸法庭,法庭判祖高域得直;但澳洲政府不服,上訴至高一級法庭,這次法庭卻維護澳洲政府在出入境問題上的行政管轄權,認為澳洲政府有權取消祖高域的入境簽證。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">從祖高域事件,我們可以清楚看到,司法制度本身就是建制的一個組成部分,它是要負責守護建制,並為建制服務的。如果司法制度真是如某些香港法律界人士所說,完全獨立於建制,目的是制衡政府的行政權,及維護市民的人權,那法庭是有充分的理據去批准祖高域入境參加澳洲網球大賽的。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">在一般人看來,祖高域在飛澳前,已取得主辦單位及維多利亞州政府的豁免,手上亦拿著官方的豁免證明,這已是一般人在入境前所能夠自覺去做的極限,祖高域並沒有刻意去違反澳洲政府的入境條例,所以他是無辜的。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">相反,澳洲政府卻是上下不一致。聯邦政府發現維多利亞州政府在處理祖高域的豁免申請時判斷不當,可以責成州政府往後不可這樣做,而不是隨意撤銷祖高域的入境簽證。法庭如果是用來制衡政府的行政權的,就應該維護循正當途徑獲得入境簽證人士的權利。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">捷克網球手禾娜高娃就認為澳洲政府有「搬龍門」之嫌,而拿度則形容澳洲政府有如演馬戲;他認為應容許祖高域出賽,這才是法庭應作出的公平判決。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">當然,這只是經常要到處巡迴作賽的網球手,單從自己的利益考慮的看法;法庭要考慮的不止是入境申請者的利益,法庭還要維護國家的行政權與澳洲的整體利差。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">為了國家安全與有效管治,大部分國家的入境條例,都賦予海關與入境部門的絕對權力,可以毋須任何理由,就可以取消已發出的入境簽證。祖高域並非澳洲公民,澳洲的法庭當然只能站在澳洲政府那邊。更何況澳洲近期疫情惡化,澳洲政府極之希望人民盡快接種疫苗;偏偏祖高域之前曾高調發表了一些否定接種疫苗需要的言論,令澳洲政府不得不拒絕他入境以正視聽。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">由此可見,司法獨立並非絕對的,司法不配合行政,政府就無法運作。</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-45955734617870618682022-01-02T16:57:00.001-08:002022-01-02T16:57:17.968-08:00 摘录雷鼎鸣先生的文章: - 美俄博弈對中港的啟示 <p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美俄博弈對中港的啟示 </span></p><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">近月以美國為首的北約積極推動烏克蘭加入北約的程序,俄羅斯堅決反對,並在俄烏邊境增加軍力,俄羅斯與西方國家關係變得嚴峻,有人還猜普京會否一怒之下收回烏克蘭。同一時期,美國與中國關係也緊張,貿易戰、科技戰、利用香港及新疆的地緣政治戰仍未完全</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">結束,台灣問題又變得尖銳起來。中、美、俄三大玩家的博弈策略益見複雜。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">中國的國策是謀求自身的發展,本無興趣與美國起衝突,但樹欲靜而風不息,美國害怕中國成為世界一哥,自己找上門來撩起紛爭,中國也無可奈何。但要注意,前蘇聯及今天的俄羅斯幾乎是西方世界的世仇,蓋因其有超強軍力及核武,領土又遼闊,從美蘇及美俄的歷史及當代關係中,中國可以吸納到不少重要的信息,有利於如何應對美國。我們可先回顧美國針對蘇聯及俄羅斯的策略,以作參考。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">二次大戰後的美蘇冷戰,勝者顯然是美國,蘇聯不但解體,經濟崩潰,人民收入在90年代減少一半,大量科技人才流失,連美女也要流落異鄉,這叫俄羅斯這戰鬥民族如何不痛不欲生?葉利欽當年若非一早與接班人普京有交易,得到特赦,怎可能在退休後過著奢華生活,甚至可到中國桑拿及傳說找氣功師注入真氣?要知道,他不但被俄羅斯人民普遍視為民族罪人,連反共的諾貝爾文學獎得主索爾仁尼琴也罵他在政治、經濟、道德上都在摧毀洗劫俄羅斯。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">蘇聯軍人被嘲侮 士氣低落</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">為何美國成功,蘇聯戰敗?這當然有多種因素。有說是蘇聯搞指令經濟,效率低下,經濟發展比不上美國,但蘇聯卻依然與美國大搞軍事競賽,終於拖垮了自己的經濟。這說法有其道理,但不要忘記,蘇聯當年有著600萬的正規軍隊及2,500萬的後備軍,武器及戰力都驚人,在1991年紅旗落地時,軍隊卻沒有去捍衞蘇聯這個國家,任由其解體。這是何故?中國素來重視軍隊的思想建設,在軍中亦設有政委,專門解決思想教育問題,所以內地的評論人很敏銳地發現了問題的所在。在蘇聯解體前的一段長時間,</span><span style="background-color: #fcff01; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">西方思想確有滲入蘇聯,而其中最厲害的一招便是有人不斷用嘲笑、侮辱的方法去針對軍中著名的英雄模範,有時烈士的塑像也被人刻意破壞,戈爾巴喬夫當總統時,此種風氣尤烈。長此以往,軍人便失去榮譽感,軍人及國民的自豪感,被視為進步的障礙。經歷了這個過程,這支軍隊只會戰力大減,面對敵人不望風而逃已是幸運,他們哪有意願去平息內亂?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">有此前車之鑑,中國現任政府便不願犯同一錯誤。韓戰時,中國志願軍的鋼鐵意志打敗了美軍的飛機大炮坦克,但今天中國軍隊還有無此等堅定的戰意?習近平一上台後,頭等大事便是整頓軍隊的貪腐,而且高調讓軍隊知道其事。要知道,若高層將領貪腐,軍心必會渙散。經過幾年的整頓及軍事科技的投入,中國軍隊煥然一新。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: #fcff01; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">反觀香港,這裏雖有駐軍,但維持治安及政府安全的,卻是警察。前年黑暴期間,幕後的策劃者也在老調重彈,要毀一地方,便要先毀其軍隊,在香港亦即警察。我們於是看到「黑警」及警察強姦了多少女人、打死了多少人等虛假宣傳充斥於網絡媒體,警察的子女在學校亦受人欺淩。懂一點歷史的,都可知道這些是博弈中其中一方的策略。也幸好香港警察一直得到大量市民及中國人民的支持,所以上述的辱警策略以失敗告終。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美社會矛盾深重 終會內爆</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">在俄羅斯與美國的博弈中,意識形態自由民主等修辭只是裝飾品,核心一直都只在如何遏制對方。北約一直告訴俄羅斯,不用擔心北約會威脅俄羅斯的安全,只要俄羅斯不去攻打附近的小國便可。1998年北約與俄羅斯仍在蜜月期時,便把波蘭納入為自己成員。隨後共11個前東歐共產國家,包括3個蘇聯的前成員國都加入了北約。換言之,北約的軍力已到了俄羅斯的邊境,中間缺乏緩衝地,俄羅斯門戶大開。美國再告訴普京北約無意威脅俄羅斯,如何會有說服力?俄羅斯本無意收復烏克蘭,但若她加入北約,俄羅斯則真正中門大開,普京怎敢不阻止此事?普京也知道,美國要把俄羅斯在外滙交收系統SWIFT中排擠出去,又因要打擊倚靠石油出口的俄羅斯經濟,所以跟沙特阿拉伯合作壓低油價。有這些背景,絕非笨蛋的普京會不防範美國?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">美國選擇打壓對象的標準也簡單,意識形態的分歧不是重點,要看對方是否有足夠實力會超越美國或挑戰美國的霸權地位。前些時拜登召開的民主峰會,獲邀名單中包括了一些極不民主的國家,一些深受人民擁護的政府卻被排擠,連美國的《時代》雜誌也說這個峰會是「偽善的高峰」(height of hypocrisy)。美國只是為了維持霸權,自己的民主「品牌」早已失去。中國應付美國有一方法,可以參考蘇聯失敗的經驗,根本不用跟美國鬥。美國社會矛盾深重而不自覺,終會內爆,猶像當年的蘇聯一樣。</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-57060836388259899172021-12-21T23:31:00.005-08:002021-12-21T23:31:55.544-08:00摘录施永青先生的文章 - 愛因斯坦如何看人生的價值 <p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">愛因斯坦如何看人生的價值</span></p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">有專門收集名人手稿的朋友,對愛因斯坦的相對論手稿被著名本地商人投得感到非常羨慕。他覺得,愛因斯坦的廣義相對論,對人類影響重大。有了這套理論基礎,人類才能對宇宙的本質有進一步的認識,人類才能成功地利用核能(愛因斯坦對他的理論被用來製造原子彈感到</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">遺憾)。因此,這份手稿可稱得上是二十世紀最重要的科學文獻,往後還有很多升值潛力。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">從投資的角度而言,朋友的分析十分有道理,尤其是在今天這種無限QE的年代,持有這類手稿的回報一定勝過持有鈔票。我相信,愛因斯坦在寫相對論的時候,一定沒有想過,這份手稿將來可以在拍賣場上賣得這麼高的價錢(港幣1億元)。在愛因斯坦的心目中,手稿的重要性不在於它在拍賣場上可以賣得甚麼價錢,而在於手稿的內容助人類揭示了宇宙的真諦。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">愛因斯坦在他的自述中曾這樣說:「當我還是一個相當早熟的少年的時候,我就已經深切意識到,大多數人終生無休止地追逐的那些希望和努力是毫無價值的。」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">大多數人終生無休止地追逐的是甚麼呢?是財富與權力,有人透過財富去獲得權力,亦有人透過權力去獲得財富。只是財富與權力都不可以帶去死後的世界,它們並沒有永恒的價值。正是死去原知萬事空,何必當初空努力!</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">愛因斯坦很年輕的時候,就得以從「僅僅作為個人」的桎梏中解放出來。這令他有機會發現,「在我們之外有一個巨大的世界,它離開我們人類而獨立存在,它在我們面前就像一個偉大而永恒的謎,然而至少部分地是我們的視察和思維所能及的。對這個世界的凝視深思,就像得到解放一樣吸引著我們……」</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">從愛因斯坦自己的文字,我們可以得悉,甚麼才是他心目中認為有價值的事情。我相信,他寧願躺在草地上凝視著穹蒼胡思亂想,也不願花時間去研究哪項投資會有更高的回報。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">愛因斯坦想看到的,並非他的手稿可以拍賣得一個驚人的高價,而是人們在思考他的相對論時,會「像得到解放一樣」受到吸引,他希望看到世上有更多的人,可以專心致志地投入探索宇宙奧秘的事業中去,並從中找到內心的自由與安寧。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">愛因斯坦死了,但是他還活著,每次有人接觸他的理念時,就像愛因斯坦為他們打開了一扇他們以前沒有留意到而又存在的窗,看到窗外令人驚訝得透不過氣來的景象,那一剎那間茅塞頓開,自己好像突然變成了另一個人一樣。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">我第一次有這種感覺是我接觸到門捷列夫的元素周期表的時候,第二次就是接觸到廣義相對論的時候。可惜從商之後,有這樣感受的機會少了。</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-31063366269364502432021-12-16T16:58:00.002-08:002021-12-16T16:58:15.446-08:00摘录雷鼎鸣先生的文章:- 南京大屠殺的教育意義<p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">南京大屠殺的教育意義</span></p><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 二○一四年人大常委決議把每年的十二月十三日訂為「國家公祭日」,以紀念在南京大屠殺中喪生的亡靈。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 這個決議非常正確。在一九三七年的這一天,日本侵華部隊在其華中軍總</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">司令,戰後被國際法庭判為甲級戰犯絞死的松井石根率領下,耀武揚威的操入南京城。這名總司令給予了日軍一天假期,以便他們到處姦淫擄掠,以殺人為樂。但此等暴行又豈止是一天之事?在其後四十多天,共三十萬無辜平民被殺,有人算過他們身上流的血液,幾近一千五百噸,當中不少被推入位處今天「南京大屠殺紀念館」位置的萬人坑中,婦女嬰兒也不被放過。但在十二月十三日同一天,東京卻有百萬人湧到街頭慶祝,歡聲震天。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 這段滅絕人性的歷史,日本不但從來沒有仿效德國總理跪倒紀念遭納粹殺害的猶太人紀念碑前道歉,反而一眾政要過時過節便去參拜供奉了松井石根等戰犯靈位的靖國神社,這是何等對生命不尊重的心態?有日本這樣一個鄰國,是中國人民的大不幸,我們能忘記歷史,麻木不警惕乎?但偏偏在香港,卻有對歷史無知,胡塗透頂的某些家長,要投訴某中學播放的一段有關「南京大屠殺」的短片,不滿當中的殘忍鏡頭,又有人認為學校只是「為勢所逼」才放這段電影。「為勢所逼」一詞暴露了這名家長的心態,他或她應是認為根本沒有必要知道「南京大屠殺」這段歷史。如果香港有大部份的家長及教師抱有此等教育觀,則香港的下一代有大概率會沉淪,不懂明辨是非,也無競爭力。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 「南京大屠殺」是人類歷史中的大事,當中可供學習的教材十分豐富,值得挖掘。若家長及教師有適當引導,孩子可培養出對生命的尊重,對兇殘的反感,對和平的熱愛。年紀較大的還可探索為何人類中有如此可怕的天性。見識過兇殘及知道日本侵略軍最終失敗,也可使孩子更有勇氣去面對可怕的敵人。在人生事業中,勇氣是成功的一個必要因素。在美國的大學校園中,現有所謂的「安全區」的概念,即學生有權不用見到他們不想見的事物,不用聽到他們不想聽的言論,此種把年輕人當作溫室裏花朵的做法,正在為美國培養出一批廢物,香港豈能學習?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 但在南京這段可怖的歷史中,我們又可見到人性的光輝在閃耀。當時有一批在南京的洋人,他們是商人、傳教士、教授、醫生等等,都因為對日軍的獸行看不下去,冒著極大的危險,利用自己特殊的身份拯救並庇護了近二十萬名南京市民。他們當中最有名的是一位德國西門子公司派在南京的員工拉貝(John Rabe),他牽頭把金陵大學及美國領事館作為核心區,在今天南京市新街口西北面三點八六平方公里的地區,成立了一個「南京安全區」,讓難民保住性命。他有此能耐與日軍討價還價,部份原因是他自己竟是一名堅定的納粹黨!拉貝來華前後共三十年,在一九三四年因為要創辦一間讓德國僑民子弟讀書的學校,向德國政府申請撥款,於是加入了納粹黨。在那段風雨飄搖,要保護並養活20萬人的日子中,他被南京人民視為活菩薩,也成了世界名人,與他一起的金陵女子文理學院教授美國人魏特琳(Minnie Vautrin,又名華群)也被視為聖母、觀音菩薩。拉貝在一九三八年二月二十三日被迫離開南京,4月回到德國,受到納粹的重重盤問,戰後,蘇聯紅軍倒是知道他的大名,善待他,但在戰後廢墟中,他也窮途潦倒,宋美齡向南京市民募捐,倒是送了一筆錢給他解困。這批建立「南京安全區」的國際友人除了讓我們見到人性善良的一面及人心的複雜外(納粹黨也可以有好人),也留下了大量歷史原始材料讓我們辨別事實的真偽。他們似乎有寫日記的習慣,當中多名當事人都留下了日記,給我們提供了第一手材料。也有人拿著攝影機到處拍攝,使我們得見不少圖片及紀錄片。後來,亦有不少有心人訪問過倖存者,記敍了他們的口述歷史,再加上當時的國際媒體報道,各種資料互相印證,「南京大屠殺」的暴行可謂鐵證如山。在作出任何道德判斷前有一步是不能免去的,便是搞清楚證據是否可信,不能人雲亦雲,這也是公民教育及專業教育的重要組成部份。教師、家長及教育局,宜充份掌握這些材料,消化後因才施教,讓學生怎麼從材料的對比中找出結論。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> 說到材料,不能不提美籍華裔歷史學家及作家張純如。她一九六八年出生,祖父母是南京大屠殺的倖存者,自幼聽祖父母描述當年經歷。研究院畢業後,她插集了大量外籍人士對大屠殺的記錄,特別是重新發現幾乎已湮沒了的近二千頁的《拉貝日記》,出版了暢銷五十餘萬本的The rape of nanking一書,使世人重新記憶起這段歷史。她在二○○四年因抑鬱症吞槍自盡,雖說她是長期失眠及受藥物後遺症影響,但我總懷疑她多多少少是在看到了這麼多悲慘材料後,精神有點承受不了。所以學校搞相關教育,也要因應不同年齡小心取材。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><span style="background-color: #cccccc; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">搞「南京大屠殺」教育,目的不應是煽動仇恨,而是要我們對人性的卑劣產生戒心,並且明白爭取和平的可貴與必要性。此點也應是教育的一部份。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" />春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-6319513993364562832021-12-08T18:00:00.003-08:002021-12-08T18:00:26.721-08:00摘录施永青先生文章 -- 為何西式民主會變成只是惺惺作態<p> 这篇文章把西式大部分人认为的所谓好的民主的源头和发展总结的很清楚,我们要了解一件事情的好坏,要从源头看起,而不是人云亦云,拾人牙慧。</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">為何西式民主會變成只是惺惺作態</span></p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">昨文指出,西方雖然把人權與民主標榜成普世價值,但這往往只是他們幹預別國內政,掠奪別國資源的藉口;現實是他們口裏說一套,行的又是另一套。大量歷史事例都反映出,西方人在履行民主與人權時,好話說盡,壞事做絕。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">有人說,西方雖然在歷史上犯過不少錯</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">誤,但是已經知錯能改,不會重蹈覆轍了。相比落後國家(這些國家大部分行威權政治),西方的那套政治制度,應更切合民主的真諦。只可惜,西方推行民主政治時,對自己人是一套,對外人又是另一套,親疏有別。</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"><br /></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">西方在希臘的城邦年代,已在政治上講民主,但只是自由民才可以有民主,奴隸是沒有民主的。在他們心目中,奴隸根本不是人,根本不配有民主。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">英國在開始搞議會政治時,亦只讓有土地的人來投票,後來才擴闊至有交稅的人。時至今日,你也要先得他們認可,成為他們的國民,你才配有投票權。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">這在處理一國自己內部的事務時或許應該這樣,但西方在處理國際事務時,亦堅持要西方人說了算,完全不尊重世上其他人的意見。他們從來不會在國際問題上搞一人一票。他們在搭建他們那套全球治理體系時,完全沒有引入民主理念。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">西方人會有這樣的選擇,跟他們整套思想體系是有密切關係的。其根源是西方人相信進化論,相信他們那套以善用資源為最終目標的政治經濟學。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">西方人相信進化論,就會認為弱肉強食是天經地義的事情。他們把地域環境的差異所導致的文明發展上的差異視作自己高人一等的客觀根據。他們覺得科技水平不如他們的外族人,在智慧水平上亦應該及不上他們;他們之間的差距會隨時間而拉闊,變成強者愈強,弱者愈弱;最後以弱者被淘汰告終。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">西方的政治經濟學,其主要功能就是讓地球上的資源獲得更有效的分配。實踐證明,把資源更多地撥給強者去處理,效果一定好過把資源撥給弱者去處理。西方的經濟學基本上以功效主義(Utilitarianism)作基礎。所以他們那套全球治理體系,很容易就演變成鋤弱扶強的體系。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">西方在科技發展上早走了一步,這本已為他們建立了很多優勢。在這個基礎上,他們又建立起保護私有產權為基礎的經濟體系,令早有資本積累的民族,在國際競爭上擁有絕對的優勢。他們的所謂法治,就是要鞏固資本擁有者的主導權——資源的管理權與成果的分配權。經過自工業革命以來這麼多年的經營與部署,西方已在與其他文明的競爭上取得壓倒性的優勢,在這種情況下,他們當然不肯輕易把既得利益拿出來與世人分享。如是令西方文明的包容性變得愈來愈低。</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-7867558422610169962021-06-27T18:13:00.006-07:002021-06-27T18:13:41.757-07:00摘录施永青先生的文章:- 中美進入冷戰狀態 傳媒自由難免受限<p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">中美進入冷戰狀態 傳媒自由難免受限</span></p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">蘋果日報停刊,有傳媒人表示,香港已痛失新聞自由,以後再難找到像黎智英這樣敢言的傳媒人;對此,他表示非常惋惜。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">他這樣的說法,很明顯在表示,他是反對保安當局引用國安法去對付蘋果日報的。他似乎認為,新聞自由應包括勾結外國勢力去制裁自己的國</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">家。為了維護新聞自由,政府是不應插手幹預傳媒運作的。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">如果他真是這樣想,那他真是對現實世界的政治毫無認識。他若是堅持在今天的香港,繼續套用這套他在學府裏得來的理念,那就不但自己會撞到頭破血流,而且還可能令香港的傳媒空間被進一步收窄。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">其實,在現實世界,傳媒自由並非無時無刻,在任何環境下都可以存在的。在古代與今天不一樣,在發達地區與落後地區不一樣,在和平時期與戰爭年代亦不一樣。並沒有一套適用於所有環境的準則。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">一般而言,傳媒自由只存在於和平時期,而且是建制已非常鞏固,且自信不會受到威脅的情況下,才會容許傳媒自由。若是在戰爭時期,敵方的傳媒是要消滅的首要對象,連存在也不能容許,怎可以有任意行動的自由?美國用飛彈「誤炸」中國駐南斯拉夫大使館,原因就是使館內有支持塞爾維亞的電台與美軍作相反的宣傳,美方當然要不惜任何手段把它滅聲。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">即使到了今年,美國的安全部門仍日夜工作,不斷設法剷除支持伊斯蘭國、伊朗、塔利班……以及所有會危害美國立國理念與現今體制的傳媒。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">二戰後,社會主義陣營開始冒起的時候,美國參議員麥卡錫就成立過一個專用來打擊「非美活動」的委員會。要審核在美國活動的文化人(包括傳媒人)的思想行為。結果連差利‧卓別靈也被視為在危害美國,被逼流亡瑞士。大量異見人士因而失業,有人甚至被逼到要自殺。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">即使到了今天,拜登上台後,特朗普在Twitter與Facebook等網上戶口都被封閉。美國連前總統的言論自由都沒法忍受,其他民間之前支持特朗普的傳媒處境如何,可想而知。只是香港的新聞界沒有心去挖掘及報道罷了。如果Fox News膽敢用蘋果日報對待北京的定位,來對待拜登政府的話,Fox News亦會落得蘋果日報一樣的命運。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">傳媒是民眾的資訊來源,任何建制都必須擁有在傳媒上的話語權,才能令憲法制定出來的體制正常運作。所謂傳媒自由,只能賦予那些認同與支持憲制的傳媒。定位與憲制對立的媒體,在任何地方都會受到限制。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">97回歸後,西方仍想把香港留在西方陣營內,扮演西方想香港扮演的角色,這是北京所不能容許的。選擇這樣做的傳媒,無可避免會受到打壓。這種打壓的力度因為中美冷戰的惡化而漸趨激烈。香港的傳媒若想留在香港活動,必須重新定位。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" />春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-9930268622185093912021-04-29T17:56:00.001-07:002021-04-29T17:56:46.989-07:00 摘录雷鼎鸣先生文章: - 泛民犯的兩大錯誤 <p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">泛民犯的兩大錯誤 </span></p><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">香港的反對派在《香港國安法》推出後,迅即兵敗如山倒,到了完善選舉制度也出台後,更幾乎被殺得片甲不留。我們若看看1年前他們阻礙立法會選出內會主席達半年之久時的得意忘形,豈能不嘆息他們的幼稚,完全看不懂物窮必反的道理,大禍將至仍茫然不知。究竟他們犯了甚麼錯誤?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">對於那些不知所謂只圖破壞的社會思潮及族群,讓其在失敗後自我枯萎退出歷史舞台是正確的取態,我們不用替其可惜。不過,反對派中也並非人人心懷叵測,他們較正派的人當中,思想也有積極的元素,處理得宜,可對香港的政經發展起到正面作用。但要發揮到這些可能存在的積極因素,首先要做的便是為他們的失敗作檢討,找出錯誤。我只見到有人雞飛狗走,未見到他們有發表過甚麼深刻的反省,為了香港之福,只有越俎代庖,替他們思考一下。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">放棄領導 任黑暴肆虐香江</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">香港反對派中較為傳統的一翼,我們姑且稱為傳統泛民,他們犯了甚麼錯誤?我認為有兩個是主要的︰第一是面對民粹黑暴的冒起,傳統泛民竟主動放棄領導力,任由黑暴肆虐香江,使市民大為反感;第二是他們對民主理念及制度認識膚淺,只懂空洞口號,不明白民主制度有優劣之分,致使當西方的民主制度缺陷陸續暴露了出來,他們卻無能力作出反思,在理論上輕易被競爭對手拷打。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">傳統泛民放棄在反對派中的領導權,最鮮明的象徵便是他們到今天也不願意與黑暴分子割席。你不割席,人民自然把你看成是與黑暴同一鼻孔出氣,也認同那些天怒人怨的攬炒行為,當你們失敗時,社會中人就算不都是額手稱慶,死硬支持者的氣勢也會大幅萎縮。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">認為傳統泛民此舉不智,並非只是我個人的判斷,不少有識之士亦早已察覺。在70年代初發表過「李一哲大字報」的作者之一王希哲,最近接受《亞洲週刊》的訪問,他也對黑暴分子推動的「打砸搶燒『時代革命』」十分不滿,認為他們「何其張狂」,但最終卻落得「大難臨頭各自飛」的下場。他希望泛民能重回「愛國民主運動」的路綫,帶領支持者重新出發。要知道,王希哲思想有深度,我甚至認為他可稱為中國民主運動第一理論家的人物,他如此評價過去幾年香港的民主運動,豈不值得放棄了領導權的傳統泛民檢討一下?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">王希哲是泛民的「自己人」,不與泛民搞在一起的其他有識之士對他們批判更猛。上周,《香港01》的老闆于品海在其5周年慶典中發言,直指︰「身居其位的泛民領軍者竟然糊塗到將自己的位置『禮讓』給一班政治流氓和無知的抗爭派,叫喊『光復香港,時代革命』等語無倫次的口號,甚至讓他們主宰泛民自己的政治命運,結果當然就是斷送了自己的政治前途。」此話說出了很多人的心聲,是時代的強音!</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">我們若有耐性細讀一些年前黑暴分子提出的口號或理論,</span><span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">不難會被其水平之低而語氣甚大感到驚詫。我見慣了年輕學生交來的作業或考卷當中充斥著的各種錯誤,雖然主觀上很想見到可以青出於藍的學生,但卻絕不會放棄查找他們錯誤的能力,若放棄,他們也不應該上我的課。有此習慣,我不會受民粹主義的吵鬧聲所惑,即使有時他們表面看來有點聲勢。正因有此素養,我特別奇怪為何傳統泛民不懂得以證據為基礎去作出諸事的判斷。我猜想他們之所以在面對民粹時如此軟弱,如此失聰失明,原因有二:一是機會主義心態,他們為了選票,不敢站在道德高地上批判黑暴的倒行逆施;二是不少傳統泛民在思想上都帶有左翼元素,這些人往往不能弄清領袖與群眾的辯證關係。群眾有力量,但需引導到有用的方向。這正如核能,很有力,但若沒有引導,會成核爆,玉石俱焚。文革後,巴金等知識分子自我檢討為何遭到紅衞兵欺淩時,也會感到似乎他們是對的,左翼知識分子的內疚感往往使他們以為群眾永遠是對的,此種認知有時頗有害處。</span><br style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">民主制度 非一定帶來幸福</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">為何我上文說泛民對民主理念認識膚淺?政治的目的是使人民達到最高的幸福感,民主制度不是目的,只是一種並不確定可否達到上述目的的手段。有不少人相信西式民主有此功能,但近年的一連串事件,頗使人質疑此種認知是否正確。為何「民主燈塔」美國選出了特朗普這樣的人做總統?為何脫歐對英國不利,但公投卻容許飄忽的民意以輕微票數為英國作了此決定,但事後又有大量人後悔?為何美國及印度這兩個最大的民主國家都在抗疫中搞得一塌糊塗,但中國卻十分成功?就算號稱民主的台灣搞得不錯,但其抗疫成績,在中國各省中也只算中等。這些事實都讓人不得不思索,政治制度有多種,民主制度也有多種,甚麼制度最適合自己?並非叫幾句機械化的口號便可解決。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">等而下之的制度考量便是自身墮入別有用心的外國算計中,跟著別人叫叫口號、縱火掟磚,便以為盡了社會責任。此等行徑,對港人毫無好處。泛民應多研習理論,認清過去自己是多麼的糊塗。懂得犯過了甚麼錯的泛民,將來在香港政治生態中理應還有角色,否則他們可能要退出歷史舞台了。</span>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-68930899754079525982021-04-08T18:00:00.002-07:002021-04-08T18:00:33.887-07:00摘录雷鼎鸣先生文章<p> 西方媒体打算把假的事情说成真的,因为假的事情讲一千遍就有更多人相信了,而大部分人是没有独立思考能力的,或懒于独立思考的。这就是残酷的事实。</p><p><br /></p><p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">跌下神壇的西方媒體 財經/地產</span></p><img src="https://resource01-proxy.ulifestyle.com.hk/res/v3/image/content/2925000/2926996/20210409JEB001__20210409_L.jpg" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1) 1px 1px 5px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px; max-width: 100%; padding: 5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">特朗普最重要的「貢獻」,也許是發明與推廣了「假新聞」(fake news)這一標籤,把一向自稱為擁抱普世價值及報道基於事實的西方傳媒弄得灰頭土臉。假若西方媒體處事公允,沒有痛腳被人抓住,「假新聞」這名詞也不會深入民心。西方傳媒並非完全沒有正義</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><a name="more" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;"></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">人士,但其不少從業員的偏頗,恐怕已為他們自製了一種信任危機,在國際事務上尤其如此。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">在西方媒體中,很少有聲譽地位能與BBC相比肩的,我們只要把這個它們最優秀的代表檢視一下,便可知特朗普的不滿並非沒有根據。BBC近年的一些新聞及評論的處理方式,的確使人失望,見到一個名牌從神壇上跌下來,我倒是感到有點悲哀。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><h1 style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"></h1><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">見微知著,可以用兩個近日的事件作為例子,說明BBC的作為有負世人的期許。第一件事是葉劉日前接受BBC訪談節目《Hard Talk》的訪問。這節目在網上容易找到,葉劉也對主持人的偏頗作了回擊,我便不談其細節,只點出主持人犯上的錯誤頗為典型,讀者不難看出其代表了不少西方傳媒的通病。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">掩藏不利自己論點的事實</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">第一種錯誤是雙重標準。主持人氣勢洶洶的質問葉劉為何香港的公務員、立法會議員、法官與司法人員要宣誓效忠中國?(其實誓詞是效忠中華人民共和國的香港特別行政區)。主持人言下之意,是此種宣誓十分不當,不應該存在,但為何他不敢指出英國官員就任也要宣誓效忠女皇,其他主要國家也有類似安排?聲色俱厲的背後,不是雙重標準是甚麼?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">第二種錯誤是割裂事實,把不方便自己論點的重要事實掩藏。主持人嚴詞責問,為何在1月份拘捕了那47人?他認為那47人僅僅是參與了一個為將來立法會選舉增加勝算的初選。但這些人的被捕,只是因為搞了個非法選舉嗎?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">這個初選顯然是操控未來選舉結果的一個組成部分,這本身是否犯法,要待法庭審判,但真正的問題並不止此。假設有一個人突然公然宣布,他計劃要行刺某位要人,並把詳細計劃列出,第一步是買刀,第二步是某時某分持刀進入要人家中把他刺死,若把他的行動割裂開來,例如跑去買刀,有些步驟根本不違法,但此人未進入要人家中拔出利刀之前,一定會被抓了起來,因為大家都知道他要幹甚麼。同理,那47名政客一早便表明目的是要癱瘓政府推翻政府,社會當然不會容許他們把此事進行到底。BBC的主持把整件事的背景抽空,這是哪門子的公正時事評論?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">買偽造資料抹黑新疆政府</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">第三種錯誤是故意無端抹黑。這名主持與BBC其他的一些新聞從業員,近日一直有大肆攻擊新疆政府搞種族滅絕及強迫勞動,先不論這些抹黑指控早已被事實推翻,邏輯上這些抹黑還會使指控者陷入困局。衡量一個政治制度及政策,要看其成效,而中國的經濟發展速度及綜合國力的進步,公認是歷史奇跡,疫情控制、扶貧、科技、國防、基建等,莫不取得矚目成就,93%的人民也支持中央政府,遠勝其他國家政府所得的支持度。愈是把中國的制度與政策說得一無是處,人神共憤,愈是難以解釋西方國家的政府管治力及不上中國。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">近日另一件事也削弱世人對BBC的信任。在中國外交部的一個記者招待會上,BBC的一個監製向外交部發言人華春瑩發炮,但卻自取其辱。事緣BBC找了個德國人鄭國恩(Adrian Zenz),要他「研究」中國在新疆如何推行種族滅絕等政策,但維吾爾人口增速遠高於漢人,人均壽命增長迅速,怎會有種族滅絕?這位BBC的監製責問華春瑩,為何批評BBC與鄭國恩的關係時不先向該監製查詢?而且又稱BBC新聞都被英國的Ofcom監管,不會亂來,不會造假。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">但見華春瑩不慌不忙,指出鄭國恩早已自爆BBC曾叫他提供新疆政府如何欺壓人民的「證據」,但鄭表示,證據很少,很難滿足BBC要求,於是BBC給了鄭一筆錢,委託他「研究」這一命題,鄭突然又「找到」不少證據。華指出了這些所謂證據根本經不起考驗。更大的問題是,一個傳媒機構有著這麼多記者不用,卻付錢給一個信譽備受質疑的人買偽造資料,這是否撐得起BBC的招牌?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">BBC虛構中國新聞無王管</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">更絕的是,華春瑩熟悉BBC的監管制度,指出Ofcom只有權力監管英國國內新聞報道,無權監管國際新聞報道,換言之,就算BBC完全虛構有關中國的新聞,也不會受罰。這位監製被抓個正著,完全無力反駁華春瑩。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;">不少人認為西方傳媒宣傳能力遠大於中國,這也許沒錯,有關中國的正面消息,西方傳媒根本無興趣報道。但近年西方媒體及政客的抹黑,包括關於新疆的造謠,卻在宣傳上幫了中國政府的大忙。中國人民第一身接觸到中國的資訊,疫情控制的成功感同身受,每年到新疆訪問的訪客,多達2億人!他們理所當然地會把西方傳媒的不實之言視為笑柄,這對提高中國人民的制度自信及民族自信有莫大好處,14億人民團結起來,不是說得了笑的力量。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px;" />春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5133183051384447686.post-16235848109581997032021-03-28T18:21:00.001-07:002021-03-28T18:21:16.078-07:00摘录汤先生文章:- 中國應該對BBC罰款<p><span style="color: #625839; font-family: PingFang HK, STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, Microsoft JhengHei, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px;">好一个“宜将剩勇追穷寇”, 借古喻今,好多事情想不明白,就多学习历史。自有明鉴。</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">新疆維吾爾族種族滅絕事件,成件事都是由BBC搞出來,現在B</span><wbr style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">BC又好似唔關佢事,沒有再表態,因為如果表態,就一定要攞證據</span><wbr style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">,如果被發覺是蔑造就大件事,中國因為今次滅族事件被歐盟,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">美英加等國家制裁,雖</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">然有反制,但似乎是放過BBC,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">不過有人會話,BBC是新聞機構,不可以制裁或者罰款,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">如果這個理據成立,英國亦不可對CGTN罰款,所以,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">來而不往非禮也,中國亦應該對BBC罰款,但唔好罰咁多,</span><wbr style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">如果BBC交罰款,代表BBC承認蔑造新聞,如果唔交罰款,就要</span><wbr style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">證明種族滅絕是真的,我突然記得毛澤東講「宜將剩勇追窮寇,莫把</span><wbr style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">沽名學霸王,天若有情天亦老,人間正道是滄桑」,放過BBC未必</span><wbr style="background-color: white; border-radius: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #625839; font-family: "PingFang HK", STHeitiTC-Light, Arial, Meiryo, "Microsoft JhengHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">是好事。</span></p>春意盎然的格调http://www.blogger.com/profile/17100534658555587539noreply@blogger.com0